Razer Chroma Sale [October 11 - 15]
Comments
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m12_sprayer wrote: »Only 250? Your lucky mate, I'm at 800 with just an ak
Dude, you just made everyone's day.
Jk, but from a practical perspective, ak is the most useful weapon there.
The axe and deagle look nice, but the deagle draw speed is too slow, and there are way to many speed knife hacks to play with the axe. -
The amount of crates someone goes without winning something has no correlation with the actual chance to win something for each crate.Could any GM confirm that Deiv has spun 800 crates with only 1 win? Cuz I'm discouraged about buying these crates with this win ratio if it's true.
In other words; whether or not he did or didn't actually go 800 crates without winning something does not directly mean the crate itself has a low drop rate, it only means that person was very unlucky.
No win in 800 crates may be an indication of a lower drop rate, but it can only ever be a result. Meaning that in order for it to have any meaning in terms of how often rare items drop from the crate, one would first need to know what the drop rate was. So even if a GM "confirms" it, there are also players who probably won all 3 weapons in less than 50 crates. It really doesn't matter. -
Make that 1000.
@Heat You're right about some people winning them in a few crates but here's the issue: The fact that a game would let you spend so mhch without a "pity prize" is insane. I know the black market is supposed to be luck based and we can't really complain, but come on. 1000 crates for one... that's so messed up.
#checkDeivsAccForBugs
There's no way it isn't bugged. -
I honestly don't believe there is anything wrong with this crate. It seems to me it has a normal win rate as most other crates in the game.
As for an issue with Deivs account....it's called he had contact with Oath/Kaora....
but seriously, i am also a firm believer in that luck for accounts comes and goes. For example ever since Bingo, despite a fair few wins, I've been in a bit of a dry spell. Though in the last week or 2 i've been coming out of it. I also have some perhaps more superstitious beliefs on it...like that I generally win more in the mornings than later in the day. If i'm in a dry spell...i'll reset my router. and I usually spin in specific servers/channels. But again that's all superstition and no way of proving if it actually does anything. Kinda like blowing on the dice before rolling. x]
As for the idea of a 'Cursed' like event for this. Maybe they could do some version of a cursed event. Certainly wouldn't hurt since it's a short time period on the crate, very limited, and yet super nice.
Would also be neat if they did a kind of contest where you take a picture of your Razer gear with it's Chroma Effects on and post it and have a chance at winning a single weapon or at least more crates.
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The amount of crates someone goes without winning something has no correlation with the actual chance to win something for each crate.
In other words; whether or not he did or didn't actually go 800 crates without winning something does not directly mean the crate itself has a low drop rate, it only means that person was very unlucky.
No win in 800 crates may be an indication of a lower drop rate, but it can only ever be a result. Meaning that in order for it to have any meaning in terms of how often rare items drop from the crate, one would first need to know what the drop rate was. So even if a GM "confirms" it, there are also players who probably won all 3 weapons in less than 50 crates. It really doesn't matter.
Don't get me wrong, but it's just that I've seen quite a lot of people exaggerate their spendings in the past. I personally haven't met anyone who'd go as far as 1000 crates to win 2 more re-skins. They're pretty guns, I agree. But $800 in just one day, and winning only 1 gun out of them, is kinda unbelievable thing to me. Now, I know people have spent much more than this on a single crate and haven't won, but I haven't yet seen anyone who'd go as far as to dish out $800 in a single day for only 2 more guns, no matter how rich or poor your are.
If it's true, then I believe I'd be throwing my $80 down in gutter cause I'm one of those 'cursed' players in CF, with a couple hundreds paid and free crates spun in past months with zero wins. -
Don't get me wrong, but it's just that I've seen quite a lot of people exaggerate their spendings in the past. I personally haven't met anyone who'd go as far as 1000 crates to win 2 more re-skins. They're pretty guns, I agree. But $800 in just one day, and winning only 1 gun out of them, is kinda unbelievable thing to me. Now, I know people have spent much more than this on a single crate and haven't won, but I haven't yet seen anyone who'd go as far as to dish out $800 in a single day for only 2 more guns, no matter how rich or poor your are.
If it's true, then I believe I'd be throwing my $80 down in gutter cause I'm one of those 'cursed' players in CF, with a couple hundreds paid and free crates spun in past months with zero wins.
Well...when the Vulcan crates came out last patch one of the SMT's told me at one point when I saw him win and I said gratz that he was 1,240,000 ZP into trying to win the full collection. Now...he'd won all but like 1 of the weapons and some of them multiple times at that....but the real indicator that he'd actually spent that much...was the fact he was also winning a fair amount of razer stuff and that it was all spaced out as if he'd buy 100k, spin his crate, not get what he wanted, then repeat the process.
I can firmly believe that some people will spend insane amounts of money in the slightest hopes of winning what they want. I personally...if I don't win in 100 crates I stop. If I do win something...I go a bit longer if i'm really wanting something else in that crate. Glorious Phoenix and Chroma being the examples there. However, i've never spent more than than $200 in a single day on this. lmao that's just insane and I agree. But some people ARE insane. or just have the money to burn or at least they think they do. -
Don't get me wrong, but it's just that I've seen quite a lot of people exaggerate their spendings in the past. I personally haven't met anyone who'd go as far as 1000 crates to win 2 more re-skins. They're pretty guns, I agree. But $800 in just one day, and winning only 1 gun out of them, is kinda unbelievable thing to me. Now, I know people have spent much more than this on a single crate and haven't won, but I haven't yet seen anyone who'd go as far as to dish out $800 in a single day for only 2 more guns, no matter how rich or poor your are.
If it's true, then I believe I'd be throwing my $80 down in gutter cause I'm one of those 'cursed' players in CF, with a couple hundreds paid and free crates spun in past months with zero wins.
Okay can we stop trying to start a conversation about how much people spend? That is not the point here. I see you everywhere discussing how much people spend. Live with it. Move on. Don't go off topic. -
m12_sprayer wrote: »Okay can we stop trying to start a conversation about how much people spend? That is not the point here. I see you everywhere discussing how much people spend. Live with it. Move on. Don't go off topic.
Much wow, so defensive. I can discuss anything I want anywhere as long as it doesn't break rules, much to your dismay. And stop acting like Kanadian. -
Much wow, so defensive. I can discuss anything I want anywhere as long as it doesn't break rules, much to your dismay. And stop acting like Kanadian.
You lack etiquette. Start trying to see things from other people's views. Here's something: is there even a single person in this forum that supports your ideology? -
You lack etiquette. Start trying to see things from other people's views. Here's something: is there even a single person in this forum that supports your ideology?
It's quite simple actually. I read people spending $1000 in one go and winning only one weapon, I get discouraged from spinning. And I believe many people feel the same way. Does your boy feel good after wasting $1000 in one day? I bet he doesn't. -
It's quite simple actually. I read people spending $1000 in one go and winning only one weapon, I get discouraged from spinning. And I believe many people feel the same way. Does your boy feel good after wasting $1000 in one day? I bet he doesn't.
Your way of expressing your opinion is very poor, no one disagrees with what you say, they disagree with how you approach it. it's very childish no offence. -
m12_sprayer wrote: »Your way of expressing your opinion is very poor, no one disagrees with what you say, they disagree with how you approach it. it's very childish no offence.
Coming from someone who belongs to a tiny group of forumers who mostly make single sentence posts with little to zero value with respect to the ongoing discussions, whose opinions neither result in any improvement nor worsen the topics in a debate. Click on my profile and check out my posts and maybe you'll come to realize that it's a little beyond your intellect to grasp the opinions and expressions conveyed in my posts, no offense. Of course, you're entitled to your opinion no matter what.
Don't quote me now please. Thank you
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Coming from someone who belongs to a tiny group of forumers who mostly make single sentence posts with little to zero value with respect to the ongoing discussions, whose opinions neither result in any improvement nor worsen the topics in a debate. Click on my profile and check out my posts and maybe you'll come to realize that it's a little beyond your intellect to grasp the opinions and expressions conveyed in my posts, no offense. Of course, you're entitled to your opinion no matter what.
Don't quote me now please. Thank you
Once again you start something new irrelevant to the conversation. If your mindset is to debate with everyone then congratz that is what you circling an endless loop.
I thought I made myself clear when I told you majority of your posts are based on how much people spend then you nag about the game. Your the only one that believes your poor expressions are actually conveyed. -
m12_sprayer wrote: »Once again you start something new irrelevant to the conversation. If your mindset is to debate with everyone then congratz that is what you circling an endless loop.
If you haven't figured out yet that the very concept of internet forums is based on debates and discussions amongst users, then I think there's no point in trying to burst your fantasy bubble that you ignorantly reside in.I thought I made myself clear when I told you majority of your posts are based on how much people spend then you nag about the game. Your the only one that believes your poor expressions are actually conveyed.
And I asked you to point me to those 'majority of my posts' where I'm nagging about people's spendings, which you failed to do, and hence nothing was made clear, except perhaps in your own little fantasy world.
Again, don't quote me please. Thank you -
m12_sprayer wrote: »You just contradicted your own comment. You telling me to not quote you means your trying to stop me from expressing my opinion, twice now. Now your turning out to be a hypocrit.
That reply was referring to our earlier argument before I started requesting you to stop quoting me. Now, for the third time, don't quote me. Thank you -
I have been looking at some numbers and trying to estimate the average number of crates it takes to win 1 weapon from this crate.
And with this data, I did some useful calculations.
Assumptions first:
- I only have 8 winning data from the forum and in-game, so take it with a grain of salt.
- A lot of information on the forum are rants of not winning. For balance, I excluded all data that "did not win any weapon from X amount of crates". Sorry Terrify. (If I win a weapon from 300 crates, I probably won't post it here, because it is not unusual )
- If someone says they won 2 weapons from 60 crates when they bought a 100. I use 2 weapons from 100 crates.
- Variance is huge
The average number of crates it takes to win is: 268.75
I used 1 in 270 for the following calculation:
Winning 1 weapon within 100 crates: 0.31 1 in 3 time
Winning 1 weapon within 200 crates: 0.524 1 in 2 time
Winning 1 weapon within 300 crates: 0.617 6 in 10 times
Winning 1 weapon within 500 crates: 0.836 8 in 10 times
Winning 1 weapon within 1000 crates: 0.976 0.976 97.6 out of 100 times
eg.
If I buy 200 crates, I have about 50% chance of winning at least 1 weapon.
Or if I want to win at least 1 weapon with 50% chance, I will buy 200 crates.
That's not over yet:
Not winning any weapon from 1000 crates: 0.024 chance, roughly 1 in 40
> Terrify
Winning less than 2 weapon from 1000 crates: 0.115, roughly 1 in 9
> m12s sprayer, Terrify
Winning 1 weapon from 1 crate: 0.0037, 1 in 270
> That newbie with Barrett Noble Gold
Lastly:
The average number of crates it takes to win all 3 weapons and get the wide grenade and name card is: 1479.5 crates
Let me know if you spot a mistake or have questions in my calculation.
Conclusion:
Rest in Peace -
Once again your telling me to stop stating my opinion, hence contradticing your own words, it doesn't matter for which argunent your stating your comment the fact your saying STOP is going against your own words hence being a hypocrit.That reply was referring to our earlier argument before I started requesting you to stop quoting me. Now, for the third time, don't quote me. Thank you -
cratesrgay wrote: »I have been looking at some numbers and trying to estimate the average number of crates it takes to win 1 weapon from this crate.
And with this data, I did some useful calculations.
Assumptions first:
- I only have 8 winning data from the forum and in-game, so take it with a grain of salt.
- A lot of information on the forum are rants of not winning. For balance, I excluded all data that "did not win any weapon from X amount of crates". Sorry Terrify. (If I win a weapon from 300 crates, I probably won't post it here, because it is not unusual )
- If someone says they won 2 weapons from 60 crates when they bought a 100. I use 2 weapons from 100 crates.
- Variance is huge
The average number of crates it takes to win is: 268.75
I used 1 in 270 for the following calculation:
Winning 1 weapon within 100 crates: 0.31 1 in 3 time
Winning 1 weapon within 200 crates: 0.524 1 in 2 time
Winning 1 weapon within 300 crates: 0.617 6 in 10 times
Winning 1 weapon within 500 crates: 0.836 8 in 10 times
Winning 1 weapon within 1000 crates: 0.976 0.976 97.6 out of 100 times
eg.
If I buy 200 crates, I have about 50% chance of winning at least 1 weapon.
Or if I want to win at least 1 weapon with 50% chance, I will buy 200 crates.
That's not over yet:
Not winning any weapon from 1000 crates: 0.024 chance, roughly 1 in 40
> Terrify
Winning less than 2 weapon from 1000 crates: 0.115, roughly 1 in 9
> m12s sprayer, Terrify
Winning 1 weapon from 1 crate: 0.0037, 1 in 270
> That newbie with Barrett Noble Gold
Lastly:
The average number of crates it takes to win all 3 weapons and get the wide grenade and name card is: 1479.5 crates
Let me know if you spot a mistake or have questions in my calculation.
Conclusion:
Rest in Peace
Well lets see how accurate your data is, I'm currently at 1100, make sure to tune in tonight at 10 pm on twitch to see me spin 200+ razer crates.
https://www.twitch.tv/deiv_devi -
That's one MASSIVE grain of salt buddy. I'm going to be blunt since you put some time in to this.cratesrgay wrote: »I have been looking at some numbers and trying to estimate the average number of crates it takes to win 1 weapon from this crate.
And with this data, I did some useful calculations.
Assumptions first:
- I only have 8 winning data from the forum and in-game, so take it with a grain of salt.
You cannot evaluate odds of anything with a data pool of 8. Not even 100. In fact, you probably won't even get a semi-accurate rough estimate until you reach 1000. Consider that thousands of individuals will or have won something from this crate. A number as low as 8 means nothing. I get that everyones now obsessed with trying to figure out the odds and my previous post probably instigated that more or less, but don't bother wasting your time in all honesty. There is not enough data publicly available to even determine something like the win percentage based on a data pool without actually knowing what it is.
If you still don't get it here's just something to consider; You have a data pool of 8. Each person has a different value(aka amount of times it takes to win). Now, I won't bother going back and looking at the exact numbers you listed because my point applies regardless.
Now let's say the numbers are like:
50
55
80
150
95
210
365
215
Now since I don't really care enough to calculate it i'm gonna say the average is somewhere around 150 just doing some quick math in my head. Now let's say you add 1 more data number to the pool, and are at 9 total individual values.
The 9th number is 655.
Now the average is(ok fine i'll calculate it):
208.33
It just jumped nearly 60 with only 1 more data value added.
You can't estimate it accurately whatsoever with such a small number of data points in the pool. -
cratesrgay wrote: »I have been looking at some numbers and trying to estimate the average number of crates it takes to win 1 weapon from this crate.
And with this data, I did some useful calculations.
Assumptions first:
- I only have 8 winning data from the forum and in-game, so take it with a grain of salt.
- A lot of information on the forum are rants of not winning. For balance, I excluded all data that "did not win any weapon from X amount of crates". Sorry Terrify. (If I win a weapon from 300 crates, I probably won't post it here, because it is not unusual )
- If someone says they won 2 weapons from 60 crates when they bought a 100. I use 2 weapons from 100 crates.
- Variance is huge
The average number of crates it takes to win is: 268.75
I used 1 in 270 for the following calculation:
Winning 1 weapon within 100 crates: 0.31 1 in 3 time
Winning 1 weapon within 200 crates: 0.524 1 in 2 time
Winning 1 weapon within 300 crates: 0.617 6 in 10 times
Winning 1 weapon within 500 crates: 0.836 8 in 10 times
Winning 1 weapon within 1000 crates: 0.976 0.976 97.6 out of 100 times
eg.
If I buy 200 crates, I have about 50% chance of winning at least 1 weapon.
Or if I want to win at least 1 weapon with 50% chance, I will buy 200 crates.
That's not over yet:
Not winning any weapon from 1000 crates: 0.024 chance, roughly 1 in 40
> Terrify
Winning less than 2 weapon from 1000 crates: 0.115, roughly 1 in 9
> m12s sprayer, Terrify
Winning 1 weapon from 1 crate: 0.0037, 1 in 270
> That newbie with Barrett Noble Gold
Lastly:
The average number of crates it takes to win all 3 weapons and get the wide grenade and name card is: 1479.5 crates
Let me know if you spot a mistake or have questions in my calculation.
Conclusion:
Rest in Peace
I don't quite think you can do ACTUAL computations toward winning the full set (too many variables). I started off by buying 100 crates. I opened those and didn't win anything...then I purchased 80 more crates and won the axe and the desert eagle about 5 crates a part from each other. Then I bought 300 more crates and won the ak-47 on the 201st crate I opened. I understand that all your numbers are quesstimates (guessed estimates) and the such but it's almost impossible to say how many crates exactly it would take to win the full set. The only other person I know who has the full set other than me won all 3 weapons within 600-700 crates and I won all 3 weapons within 480 crates. At the end of the day its all luck.....some have it and some don't. -
You are absolutely right.
There is not enough data.
The data is not authentic.
Win rate could be different on different accounts.
Win rate could be adjusted anytime.
Due to small winning probability, the variance is naturally high.
This is the reason why the winning probability isn't known to the public. Not just cf NA, the rates on cf CN is not even known to the public (although they are forced to disclose some probability information).
The calculation is only an attempt to make sense of the system.
After all, the study of statistics can only help us BETTER predict, but it is never certain.
Once again, you are right. The data is by no mean statistically significant or predictive.
But I do think it gives a better idea of crates chances work than show off threads and rants.
This discussion has been closed.
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