Player Rank Density In Alpha.
Comments
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My underlying point here is: Unless you get real, unbiased, weighing numbers from z8, G4, or HGW, your conclusion is nothing more than speculation.
Calculating the percentage of hackers in this game now, or at any given point in time is literally impossible without access to the correct information.
I appreciate the information on active players, it gives real perspective. -
My underlying point here is: Unless you get real, unbiased, weighing numbers from z8, G4, or HGW, your conclusion is nothing more than speculation.
Calculating the percentage of hackers in this game now, or at any given point in time is literally impossible without access to the correct information.
Well, isn't speculation the only thing we get to work with, as I don't think that Z8/G4/HGW will publicly release that information. -
When was that page opened? And when did you start this?
Peoples' access to Facebook makes your point invalid, anyway.
Also, do you expect almost a million people to be playing this game at any given point? Or that people dropped the game soon after they liked the page?
It's all unreliable information.
I also know my profile number is 4,352,141.
Go to your profile page and at the top in the URL it will show your number.
Now why would it go up to 4,352,141?
Because there are at least that many accounts. -
My profile URL is: /charstat_cf.aspx?usn=4824428I also know my profile number is 4,352,141.
Go to your profile page and at the top in the URL it will show your number.
Now why would it go up to 4,352,141?
Because there are at least that many accounts.
I made that account in February of 2009. Were 4.8 million accounts made between November '08 and February '09?
On the same premise, credit/debit cards have 16 numbers on them. Do you think those numbers are randomly generated, or are there a quadrillion credit cards, and they started from 1?
(Edit: brainfarted on the 16 numbers
) -
My profile URL is: /charstat_cf.aspx?usn=4824428
I made that account in February of 2009. Were 4.8 million accounts made between November '08 and February '09?
On the same premise, credit/debit cards have 16 numbers on them. Do you think those numbers are randomly generated, or are there a quadrillion credit cards, and they started from 1?
(Edit: brainfarted on the 16 numbers)
Credit card is a bad example, the 4 group of 4 numbers aren't random.
But your point is made.
Been trying to get the player list to show me the number of players, remember being able to before but don't have proof to show its number :P.
Any ways found BL and GR.
http://clan.z8games.com/clanstat_cf.aspx?guildid=55000
http://clan.z8games.com/clanstat_cf.aspx?guildid=54996
That is 110,000+ right there, will be trying to figure out how I got the player list to show the number of players in the mean time.
Edit: I'm a idiot. The Screenshot Thread has 944,110 views. That number only goes up for every unique IP that views it. Meaning 944,110 separate computers loaded that page. Not accounts but a very good start to getting a idea on how many exist.
Edit 2: Welcometokills profile number is 12,500,000 exactly XD. http://clan.z8games.com/charstat_cf.aspx?usn=12500000
Why would they increase it by 1 digit if it was random and didn't have that many accounts?
Also found a account with a profile number of 1. http://clan.z8games.com/charstat_cf.aspx?usn=1
Edit 3: Members page, a list of all forum accounts.
http://forum.z8games.com/memberlist.php
Says "829332 Listed". -
Been trying to get the player list to show me the number of players, remember being able to before but don't have proof to show its number :P.
Any ways found BL and GR.
http://clan.z8games.com/clanstat_cf.aspx?guildid=55000
http://clan.z8games.com/clanstat_cf.aspx?guildid=54996
That is 110,000+ right there, will be trying to figure out how I got the player list to show the number of players in the mean time.
This started even before the Facebook page for Crossfire opened, making both numbers irrelevant.Edit: I'm a idiot. The Screenshot Thread has 944,110 views. That number only goes up for every unique IP that views it. Meaning 944,110 separate computers loaded that page. Not accounts but a very good start to getting a idea on how many exist.
That isn't true. Whenever someone starts their computer, they are given a general, randomly generated IP, which is probably what the view count goes by. Viewing the page and restarting your computer, then viewing it again would most likely add a view count.
In any case, someone can be counted twice on the view count.Edit 2: Welcometokills profile number is 12,500,000 exactly XD. http://clan.z8games.com/charstat_cf.aspx?usn=12500000
Why would they increase it by 1 digit if it was random and didn't have that many accounts?
I'm sure 7 digits sounded like more than enough for whatever their low-end estimation was on population growth in this game. They added another digit because they recognize the growth.Also found a account with a profile number of 1. http://clan.z8games.com/charstat_cf.aspx?usn=1
It was made for the clan site's development.Edit 3: Members page, a list of all forum accounts.
http://forum.z8games.com/memberlist.php
Says "829332 Listed".
You aren't added to the list until you post at least once.
None of this gives any usable information, and certainly doesn't make your point any more valid. -
You aren't added to the list until you post at least once.
Quite a few forum accounts on the list don't have any posts.
And even if what you said was true, it mean that there are at least 829,332 forum accounts with 1 post, imagine how many account haven't posted at all if that were the case.
Also the number of members on the list increased to 829,337 now.
Been searching the forums for post by GMs and mods saying how many accounts are registered when I found this.We've banned WAY farther than a thousand accounts. Heck, one day we announced it, it was around 6grand.
Also, temp bans are only for our auto ban system. When a player is reported via the correct report method, it is a permanent ban. However the auto-ban system does lead up to a permanent ban.
According to the thread, that 6K ban was just from 1 day of X-trap auto detecting.
Even if it only bans 500 accounts a day average that be over 100,000 banned accounts by it alone since it started.
Edit: Also forgot to mention. Profile numbers 12500001-12502345 all have accounts, I'm still increasing the number in till It stops.
Edit: Profile numbers 12500001-12539433 all have accounts linked to them. That is 39433 accounts in a row so far. I seriously doubt that the profile number is random. It still increasing.
Edit: Profile number at 12546742 and still going, The scripting program has yet to hit a page that doesn't have a profile in it. Also the forum members list increased to 829353.
Edit: Going to bed. Profile number at 12552344 as still increasing. Will post what it stops, if it does stop, when I wake up. -
Often decisions with statistics aren't made with concrete evidence, they're made with chances and relativity.
Chances are, VATAV's right.
Also, the user accounts do go up by 1 every time an account is made, but if you look below 10000ish there are a bunch of accounts that aren't there, meaning Z8Games started off the count higher then 1. -
My scripted stopped at 12,598,569. 2 hours ago.
I reran it from -1000 from the stopped number and now it stops at 12,599,953.
99,953 accounts in a row, if the profile number was random my script would be hitting empty spaces and stopping.
That is 1,384 new accounts in 2 hours.
If that growth rate was steady it only take a few days to reach 100,000+ more accounts.
Edit: It increased again to 12,599,964 well typing this. And most are Trainees and a few already lost their Honor Ribbon.GodsGunman wrote: »Often decisions with statistics aren't made with concrete evidence, they're made with chances and relativity.
Chances are, VATAV's right.
Also, the user accounts do go up by 1 every time an account is made, but if you look below 10000ish there are a bunch of accounts that aren't there, meaning Z8Games started off the count higher then 1.
When CF switched from Subagames to Z8games, a lot of accounts were lost in the process (My first one included). I've seen several post from mods saying they almost never delete accounts as well. -
My scripted stopped at 12,598,569. 2 hours ago.
I reran it from -1000 from the stopped number and now it stops at 12,599,953.
99,953 accounts in a row, if the profile number was random my script would be hitting empty spaces and stopping.
That is 1,384 new accounts in 2 hours.
If that growth rate was steady it only take a few days to reach 100,000+ more accounts.
Edit: It increased again to 12,599,964 well typing this. And most are Trainees and a few already lost their Honor Ribbon.
When CF switched from Subagames to Z8games, a lot of accounts were lost in the process (My first one included). I've seen several post from mods saying they almost never delete accounts as well.
I honestly don't see how any of this helps your point at all. Poking holes in what I've said doesn't change anything. You are providing all of these numbers, but they don't help you much.
Giving population for the forum, Facebook, and now numbers from growth estimation.
Doesn't the clan page only update once a day? Couldn't those 1,384 account creations be spread throughout the day? That would make only 6-7 thousand a week, not 100 thousand.
Anyway, back on track, these numbers are nothing more than useless. -
Are you agreeing with him when he says every new account made is used for hacking?GodsGunman wrote: »Often decisions with statistics aren't made with concrete evidence, they're made with chances and relativity.
Chances are, VATAV's right.
Also, the user accounts do go up by 1 every time an account is made, but if you look below 10000ish there are a bunch of accounts that aren't there, meaning Z8Games started off the count higher then 1. -
I honestly don't see how any of this helps your point at all. Poking holes in what I've said doesn't change anything. You are providing all of these numbers, but they don't help you much.
Giving population for the forum, Facebook, and now numbers from growth estimation.
Doesn't the clan page only update once a day? Couldn't those 1,384 account creations be spread throughout the day? That would make only 6-7 thousand a week, not 100 thousand.
Anyway, back on track, these numbers are nothing more than useless.
The fact it continues to increase 3 times (12,598,569 2 hours ago, 12,599,953 12 minutes ago, and 12,599,964 5 minutes ago) in a 3 hour period proves its not updated once a day.
Do you even read all what I type or are you simply skimming? -
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http://forum.z8games.com/memberlist.php
"Showing results 1 to 30 of 829602"
http://forum.z8games.com/showthread.php?t=28792
Has 945,012 views.
http://www.facebook.com/crossfireonline
"966,339 like this"
1 of these by them selves isn't helpful info but all 3 showing just under 1 million?
With all 3 the possibility of about 1,000,000 accounts( give or take 100,000) is very high.
2 are maintained by Z8 and the third a independent company. Making the data reliable.
Also my testing of the clan page profile number showed that it is:
1. Very unlikely to be random. A 99,964 profile streak with no gaps in it suggest that density is ridiculously high to be random, or its running out of space even tho it has 8 digits to work with.
2. It is linear, the max continues to increase and the accounts in the increase are trainees that played today.
12,600,000 spaces and the 99,964 profiles in a row suggest a very high density of accounts in this number. Very likely to have over 1 million accounts made.
These 4 data points, 3 made and maintained by Z8, establishes a insanely high chance that there is at least 1 million accounts. But we don't see nearly that amount in game, suggesting that most of them are inactive.
Why are they inactive?
The question I originally came to answer when I started this is "Why is the average player rank staying so low?". In a game where EXP is always going up and no way to lose EXP, the average rank should be increasing with time, yet it doesn't.
I collected data to verify that it is indeed low and not just me imagining things.
After confirming that it is low, I started looking for reasons why it stays low.
For it to stay low, most account must become inactive when nearing the high ranks and new accounts made to match the in-actives.
So possible reasons:
1. Old players are quitting and new players join at a high enough rate so that we don't notice a decrease in players.
2. Players continue to make new accounts and for some reason stop playing the old ones.
Lets compare rank distribution. Green is low pings, Pink is high pings.
Notice how low pings slowly increase in density to a point then drop? That what the expected rank distribution is. Yet when we look at the high ping line, It spikes early and just drops.
How would one explain this? This game has been popular with high pings for over a year now, they should be approaching First LT by now, yet very few made it even to Second LT. -
The way I see it is that many Latinos and Brazilians are too dumb to remember passwords. How do I know this? I'm Mexican.. Even on other games I've noticed more than half of my latin friends making new accounts. o.o
Btw the facebook and usn numbers don't make sense, we only have 829751 registered accounts.
I have no idea what I'm talking about. -
ALEXisMexi wrote: »The way I see it is that many Latinos and Brazilians are too dumb to remember passwords. How do I know this? I'm Mexican.. Even on other games I've noticed more than half of my latin friends making new accounts. o.o
Btw the facebook and usn numbers don't make sense, we only have 829751 registered accounts.
I have no idea what I'm talking about.
Possible that many failed to link there account to facebook.
So they may have made many accounts to try again. -
blackaknow wrote: »does this mean the banning system doesnt work unless they ban people's IP so any account you create will not be able to join?
Z8 already does ban IPs.
It is just that it is so easy to get around a IP ban that it might as well be useless.
Still the majority of accounts being no longer played in Alpha for what ever reason seem to come from the high ping population.
Two possible solutions to stop this repeated process of new accounts being made to replace old ones.
1. Ping restriction when entering a server.
Server makes a ping request before it lets you in. If you pass your in with no worries of spiking. If you fail it refuses entry, but you can try again.
Impossible to get around because the server timestamps when it sent the ping packets and when they arrive.
2. Restrict account making from regions beyond the intended costumer region.
Old accounts can still be played but they won't be able to replace them if they lose them.
This game is hosted in NA and UK, so these should be the primary customer base not regions outside of them.
By targeting the routers to the server and not the individual IP one can't get around it.
Number 2 is the most fair option.
People that already have accounts can play and those who lose those accounts can no longer play. Since hackers seem to be banned eventually, this should remove them far better then old methods. -
Z8 already does ban IPs.
It is just that it is so easy to get around a IP ban that it might as well be useless.
Still the majority of accounts being no longer played in Alpha for what ever reason seem to come from the high ping population.
Two possible solutions to stop this repeated process of new accounts being made to replace old ones.
1. Ping restriction when entering a server.
Server makes a ping request before it lets you in. If you pass your in with no worries of spiking. If you fail it refuses entry, but you can try again.
Impossible to get around because the server timestamps when it sent the ping packets and when they arrive.
2. Restrict account making from regions beyond the intended costumer region.
Old accounts can still be played but they won't be able to replace them if they lose them.
This game is hosted in NA and UK, so these should be the primary customer base not regions outside of them.
By targeting the routers to the server and not the individual IP one can't get around it.
Number 2 is the most fair option.
People that already have accounts can play and those who lose those accounts can no longer play. Since hackers seem to be banned eventually, this should remove them far better then old methods.
I like the second idea best. They both are good ideas, but like you said with proxies and Ip bans being pretty much useless to the people who circumvent security with haks, proxying your outside IP is easy. -
aheadsplit wrote: »I like the second idea best. They both are good ideas, but like you said with proxies and Ip bans being pretty much useless to the people who circumvent security with haks, proxying your outside IP is easy.
The second one is already in use for some areas. (Mostly Europe and Asia)
We know it works and is effective. It works by targeting the main central routers in a region and denying any account that used those routers to connect to Z8 to make account. The only way around this is to move a region that isn't being targeted.
I'm hoping once CF LA is out of beta they do the same for South America. -
aExtinction wrote: »Awesome is takes 2659 days to reach my rank. oh wait im 4 classes higher which in another 310k per class, which is 1.2 million more exp, and for 2k a day, thats a lot a days >.>
No surprise there.
The 2,000 a day is the casual play rate (90% of any healthy game player base is casual). Basically just doing the Daily mission and a few games afterwords.
Anyone who made it to Colonel either been playing insanely actively and getting lots of EXP per day for a long time or farmed it. At say 10,000 EXP a day, it take a fifth of that time or just over a year in a half.
That stuff bugs the crap outta me. 
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