My understanding on how crates work - odds explained!
First of all i'm sorry to start a new thread but i found my opinion much more different than FIREEAGLE's, so different that it does not fit on his thread 
I'll try to make you see the black market trough a computer programmer point of view.
Firstly, let's see how "randomness" works. In PHP, similar to C++, randomness is created trough a function called rand. If i want to generate random numbers, let's say from 1 to 9, i can set the following line of code:
[PHP]echo(rand(1,9)[/PHP]
The output would be:
[PHP]5[/PHP] The computer randomly selected a number between 1 and 9.
Now, think about it as if it was the blackmarket. The game dev's can set a determinate item for a determinate number. Suppose:
1 is 200 gp
2 is 500 gp
3 is 1 coupon
4 is a spray
5 is a defuse kit
6 is a perm gun
And use the rand function to generate 3 output values. In this case the probability of getting a permanent weapon is 1/6, but we could apply this syntax to a much bigger scale. Being:
1,2,3,4,5,6...998, 999, 1000 for items like speed, gp, spray etc.
100 of that 1000 numbers are coupons, and only 3 out of the 1000 are the permanent weapon.
1/10 e the probability of getting a coupon, and 3/1000 the prob. of getting the perm item. That being said, i'm sure that it's not about what comes in the crates itself, because every crate has the same code in it. The real prizes are generated the moment you spin the button. Virtually, every crate has the permanent weapon, but it's not guaranteed that it will be generated this time.
That's why some weapons feel easier to win. It all depends in how much different numbers the computer is allowed to choose from!
Again, this is just personal opinion here! Thoughts?
I'll try to make you see the black market trough a computer programmer point of view.
Firstly, let's see how "randomness" works. In PHP, similar to C++, randomness is created trough a function called rand. If i want to generate random numbers, let's say from 1 to 9, i can set the following line of code:
[PHP]echo(rand(1,9)[/PHP]
The output would be:
[PHP]5[/PHP] The computer randomly selected a number between 1 and 9.
Now, think about it as if it was the blackmarket. The game dev's can set a determinate item for a determinate number. Suppose:
1 is 200 gp
2 is 500 gp
3 is 1 coupon
4 is a spray
5 is a defuse kit
6 is a perm gun
And use the rand function to generate 3 output values. In this case the probability of getting a permanent weapon is 1/6, but we could apply this syntax to a much bigger scale. Being:
1,2,3,4,5,6...998, 999, 1000 for items like speed, gp, spray etc.
100 of that 1000 numbers are coupons, and only 3 out of the 1000 are the permanent weapon.
1/10 e the probability of getting a coupon, and 3/1000 the prob. of getting the perm item. That being said, i'm sure that it's not about what comes in the crates itself, because every crate has the same code in it. The real prizes are generated the moment you spin the button. Virtually, every crate has the permanent weapon, but it's not guaranteed that it will be generated this time.
That's why some weapons feel easier to win. It all depends in how much different numbers the computer is allowed to choose from!
Again, this is just personal opinion here! Thoughts?
Comments
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First of all i'm sorry to start a new thread but i found my opinion much more different than FIREEAGLE's, so different that it does not fit on his thread
I'll try to make you see the black market trough a computer programmer point of view.
Firstly, let's see how "randomness" works. In PHP, similar to C++, randomness is created trough a function called rand. If i want to generate random numbers, let's say from 1 to 9, i can set the following line of code:
[PHP]echo(rand(1,9)[/PHP]
The output would be:
[PHP]5[/PHP] The computer randomly selected a number between 1 and 9.
Now, think about it as if it was the blackmarket. The game dev's can set a determinate item for a determinate number. Suppose:
1 is 200 gp
2 is 500 gp
3 is 1 coupon
4 is a spray
5 is a defuse kit
6 is a perm gun
And use the rand function to generate 3 output values. In this case the probability of getting a permanent weapon is 1/6, but we could apply this syntax to a much bigger scale. Being:
1,2,3,4,5,6...998, 999, 1000 for items like speed, gp, spray etc.
100 of that 1000 numbers are coupons, and only 3 out of the 1000 are the permanent weapon.
1/10 e the probability of getting a coupon, and 3/1000 the prob. of getting the perm item. That being said, i'm sure that it's not about what comes in the crates itself, because every crate has the same code in it. The real prizes are generated the moment you spin the button. Virtually, every crate has the permanent weapon, but it's not guaranteed that it will be generated this time.
That's why some weapons feel easier to win. It all depends in how much different numbers the computer is allowed to choose from!
Again, this is just personal opinion here! Thoughts?
I think I understand what you mean, even though your explanation is a bit confusing :P
If I was coding my own Black Market sort of thing, here's a simplified version of how I would do it:
[php]
define('BM_CHANCE_WIN_DESIRED_ITEM', 50); //"one in X" chance that the player will win the item the crate is for
//could also do it so each different crate has a different chance, to make certain weapons more rare
if (rand(1, BM_CHANCE_WIN_DESIRED_ITEM) == 1) { //player won what he wanted
//player receives the weapon, and two other randomItems
} else { //player did not win what he wanted
//player receives three randomItems
}
function randomItem() {
return rand(0,3);
/* 0 = spray
1 = extra grenade slot
2 = muzzle flash color
3 = GP
etc... */
}
[/php]
This method is easy to understand and easy to explain to the players. You tell them: "Upon opening a crate, you will receive three items. You have a one in X chance of winning the weapon you bought the crate for. If you win the weapon, you will receive it and two other random items. If you did not win the weapon, you will receive three random items."
Alternatively, you may not want to tell the player the chances of winning the weapon, because that might discourage them from buying crates at all
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There is definitely some math in there somewhere. A computer cannot be 100% Random though. Being a "computer", if you will, the Black Market has some sort of pattern to it. I know I will get flamed at for this, but it is true. No computer has the capability of being 100% random no matter how efficient. This itself would increase the amount of guns people win from the crates everyday. A factor could be the time, day, amount of people online the game at that time, or just luck. My clan leader, [WAL]Ray? Has won almost every crate gun in the game and he would be the first to tell you that it isn't completely random. Yes, it is said to be random, but it isn't always what it says.
TL;DR: The Black Market isn't 100% Random and there are many factors that could change the chance of winning. -
Dark Beast wrote: »There is definitely some math in there somewhere. A computer cannot be 100% Random though. Being a "computer", if you will, the Black Market has some sort of pattern to it. I know I will get flamed at for this, but it is true. No computer has the capability of being 100% random no matter how efficient. This itself would increase the amount of guns people win from the crates everyday. A factor could be the time, day, amount of people online the game at that time, or just luck. My clan leader, [WAL]Ray? Has won almost every crate gun in the game and he would be the first to tell you that it isn't completely random. Yes, it is said to be random, but it isn't always what it says.
TL;DR: The Black Market isn't 100% Random and there are many factors that could change the chance of winning.
The factors change the odds of winning? Of course they do.
Computers as I have stated before, cannot make randomly generated numbers, but can make generated numbers random. -
Dark Beast wrote: »There is definitely some math in there somewhere. A computer cannot be 100% Random though. Being a "computer", if you will, the Black Market has some sort of pattern to it. I know I will get flamed at for this, but it is true. No computer has the capability of being 100% random no matter how efficient. This itself would increase the amount of guns people win from the crates everyday. A factor could be the time, day, amount of people online the game at that time, or just luck. My clan leader, [WAL]Ray? Has won almost every crate gun in the game and he would be the first to tell you that it isn't completely random. Yes, it is said to be random, but it isn't always what it says.
TL;DR: The Black Market isn't 100% Random and there are many factors that could change the chance of winning.
so? just tell us which factors are that:rolleyes: -
Ok so what exactly are my odds when buying a crate? 1/6? That wouldn't make any sense because people have bought 50-100+ crates and haven't gotten the perm gun. In my opinion, I believe there is duplicates of chances of wining things, so
1 is 200 gp
2 is 200 gp
3 is 1 coupon
4 is 1 coupon
5 is a spray
6 is a spray
7 is a defuse kit
8 is a defuse kit
9 is the perm gun -
Dark Beast wrote: »There is definitely some math in there somewhere. A computer cannot be 100% Random though. Being a "computer", if you will, the Black Market has some sort of pattern to it. I know I will get flamed at for this, but it is true. No computer has the capability of being 100% random no matter how efficient. This itself would increase the amount of guns people win from the crates everyday. A factor could be the time, day, amount of people online the game at that time, or just luck. My clan leader, [WAL]Ray? Has won almost every crate gun in the game and he would be the first to tell you that it isn't completely random. Yes, it is said to be random, but it isn't always what it says.
TL;DR: The Black Market isn't 100% Random and there are many factors that could change the chance of winning.
I am going to make a chart and compare data for a week and see what I come up with. If there is some sort of pattern, then I could potentially find a way to get guns while using as little crates as possible. Or there is no pattern and I wasted lots of valuable time. -
How much you wanna bet that this thread ends up getting closed because it's trying to get into the inner workings of the crate system, which is clearly set up to maximize profits in a way that only discourages users to buy them slightly?
If they found out how rare it was to get an item and posted it, it could mean Z8's cash crop...they wouldn't like that in the slightest. -
How much you wanna bet that this thread ends up getting closed because it's trying to get into the inner workings of the crate system, which is clearly set up to maximize profits in a way that only discourages users to buy them slightly?
If they found out how rare it was to get an item and posted it, it could mean Z8's cash crop...they wouldn't like that in the slightest.
my idea is that they need a certain amount of ZP or money every day, or week, or month lets say, in order to make their ends meet or maintain a certain profit.
Wait I just realized it will be impossible to find out how much players are spending.. so figuring it out would be impossible. -
my idea is that they need a certain amount of ZP or money every day, or week, or month lets say, in order to make their ends meet or maintain a certain profit.
Wait I just realized it will be impossible to find out how much players are spending.. so figuring it out would be impossible.
Ever heard of an invoice? -
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