Black Market Crate Probability Experiment
Hello all.
There are a lot of people on these forums who want to know the probability of getting a top prize in a crate. So I decided, it can't be too hard to find an estimate of the probability. Which brings me to this thread.
Aim.
To find out the probability of getting a top prize in a Black Market Crate.
Prediction.
My prediction of the probability would be around 0.3%. This takes into consideration the lucky ones (people who get it in <10 crates) and the unlucky ones (people who have bought over 150 crates and still have not got a top prize). It also takes into consideration that you get 3 prizes from each crate.
Method.
I will gather information from a range of Crossfire gamblers and use that to calculate an estimated probability using the following formula:
P=N/300 where P is the probability and N is the sum of crates each person bought to receive a top prize (all added together).
What I need from you.
I need anyone who has won a top prize to supply me with the information needed to calculate this elusive probability. I will take 100 samples into consideration for the conclusion (hence the N/300 bit, 100 samples x 3 prizes from each crate).
You are eligible to take place and send me information if:
Prize Won:
Number Of Crates Taken:
If you have more than one entry, please post them in the same post.
Data So Far.
Here is a list of the data collected so far. (For my own personal tracking use)
1. 80
2. 380
3. 2
4. 29
5. 48
6. 18
7. 3
8. 120
9. 890
10. 120
11. 200
12. 29
13. 26
14. 30
15. 4
16. 10
17. 50
18. 118
19. 30
20. 2
Conclusion.
This will be written once 100 people have supplied information.
Thank-you in advance for your time and information.
There are a lot of people on these forums who want to know the probability of getting a top prize in a crate. So I decided, it can't be too hard to find an estimate of the probability. Which brings me to this thread.
Aim.
To find out the probability of getting a top prize in a Black Market Crate.
Prediction.
My prediction of the probability would be around 0.3%. This takes into consideration the lucky ones (people who get it in <10 crates) and the unlucky ones (people who have bought over 150 crates and still have not got a top prize). It also takes into consideration that you get 3 prizes from each crate.
Method.
I will gather information from a range of Crossfire gamblers and use that to calculate an estimated probability using the following formula:
P=N/300 where P is the probability and N is the sum of crates each person bought to receive a top prize (all added together).
What I need from you.
I need anyone who has won a top prize to supply me with the information needed to calculate this elusive probability. I will take 100 samples into consideration for the conclusion (hence the N/300 bit, 100 samples x 3 prizes from each crate).
You are eligible to take place and send me information if:
- You have won a top prize from the Black Market. (M4-C, AK47-S, KRISS SUPER V, AWM-XMAS-ADV, DE-C, ANCND-ADV, AUG-CAMO, WINCHESTER/THOMPSON, M16-S)
- You can recall how many crates it took you to win this top prize. (To the nearest 10 crates if you cannot remember exactly)
Prize Won:
Number Of Crates Taken:
If you have more than one entry, please post them in the same post.
Data So Far.
Here is a list of the data collected so far. (For my own personal tracking use)
1. 80
2. 380
3. 2
4. 29
5. 48
6. 18
7. 3
8. 120
9. 890
10. 120
11. 200
12. 29
13. 26
14. 30
15. 4
16. 10
17. 50
18. 118
19. 30
20. 2
Conclusion.
This will be written once 100 people have supplied information.
Thank-you in advance for your time and information.
Comments
-
It's random, but it has to have a number to work with. If we can determine that number, we have the probability. The only way to have random without having a number to work with would be to have everything have an equal chance at being chosen, so there would be top prizes every 4th or so crate.saintNooby wrote: »AK Scope - 380
Winchester - 2 / 29 / 48 ( won 3x )
Thomson - 18
M16 Scope - 3
Aug Camo - 120
DEag-Camo - 890 / 120
Anaconda-Adv - 200
AWM-Adv - 29
It's completely random, Btw. So this Experiment is pretty pointless -
yeah i had doing this in mind aswell but i was too lazy glad u did it
dont know about my weaps
but mp5 halloween 2 crates
awm 30 crates and not recieved it
m16 more then 200k gp and didnt get it
aug more then 100 k gp and dint get it
and those are the only 1 i am sure about -
saintNooby wrote: »AK Scope - 380
Winchester - 2 / 29 / 48 ( won 3x )
Thomson - 18
M16 Scope - 3
Aug Camo - 120
DEag-Camo - 890 / 120
Anaconda-Adv - 200
AWM-Adv - 29
It's completely random, Btw. So this Experiment is pretty pointless
lol ur so dAMN LUCKY WITH THE THANKSGIVING PATCH LOL -
List so far:
1. 80
2. 380
3. 2
4. 29
5. 48
6. 18
7. 3
8. 120
9. 890
10. 120
11. 200
12. 29
13. 26
14. 30
15. 4
16. 10
17. 50
18. 118
19. 30
20. 2
21. 1
22. 2
23. 26
24. 130
25. 11
26. 3
27. 6
28. 79
29. 151
30. 4
31. 1
32. 2
33. 20
34. 32
35. 1
36. 20
37. 70
38. 620
39. 460
40. 10
41. 50
42. 200
43. 220
44. 2
45. 30
46. 51
47. 14
48. 4
49. 205
50. 49
51. 40
52. 32
53. 10
I thank you all for your input so far. We should have gathered enough information tonight to conclude.
![MissA]Suzy](https://z8games.akamaized.net/cfna/forum/customavatars/24/navatar_4061724.gif){kind=avatar}
good luck with this 
. 
![[Rory]](https://z8games.akamaized.net/cfna/forum/customavatars/17/navatar_3095917.gif){kind=avatar}
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