Black Market (Observation)
Comments
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I don't understand this. Care to elaborate it a little more? Got proof of it "moving your certain pattern"?' wrote:OMG[Thank;3072781']
- Receive damage or deal damage from/to someone will move your certain pattern.' wrote:OMG[Thank;3072781']
- If you are very close to the winning items, it's not true spot because we win GP at 3rd spot that means every 3 items in the semi-circle contain GP, but you can see the 4 unobtainable items is not follow the rules (3 items which GP is last item). It proves the 4 unobtainable items is completely fake.
It just shows that its a random pick in the "bag"/crate. We don't know how much of quantity of each item is in the "bag". If that's the case, then we also do not know WHEN there is a reset of the quantity of each item.
I don't know if you have noticed, but some others have as well as I, that as soon as you let go of the spin the crates winnings has already been decided for that spin. Is spinning a factor? Probably not in terms of actual spinning, but maybe increasing the angle of the pointer from the y-axis may change the "pattern" -
I don't understand this. Care to elaborate it a little more? Got proof of it "moving your certain pattern"?
Hi [MOD]9,
I don't sure if I can explain fully it to you but I'll try. The picture below is M4A1-E
You can see the power bar of this gun, I would say it's 65/100 point. It will deal 36, 37 damage on chest/ back at 5 meters (according the GodsGunMan's guide). Here is difference, why a certain power 65 deal 2 different damages, what's for? I'll assume 36 is common damage, and 37 is critical damage. The critical damage usually happen rarely in most game, the dealing damage is moving means it's already in list of pattern. It may be a long list like
1st shot.36
2nd shot.37
3rd shot.36
4th.36
5th.36
6th.36
7th.37 .....etc
When you are at 37 damage (2nd shot), the next one will be 36 damage (3rd shot) and so on. It's clearly move itself and each of number correspond with the specific pattern in BM. One you move the damage to different point, it also moves the certain pattern. I know there is a game that explain RNG method, if you wanna go further details to understand more clearly, I could explain the pattern list by that game if you don't mind.
About the random items in crate, I think we know most of us know 3rd slot is always as GP. I will go theory "the 3rd slot is always GP", if the theory is true, All items at the semi-circle will go like this:It just shows that its a random pick in the "bag"/crate. We don't know how much of quantity of each item is in the "bag". If that's the case, then we also do not know WHEN there is a reset of the quantity of each item.
...-I-I-G-I-I-G-I-I-G-I-I-G-I-I-G-I-I-G-I-I-G-I-I-G-I-I-G-I-I-G-I-I-G-I-I-G-I-I-G-I-I-G-...
I= Item
G= GP
Unfortunately, you can see the 4 unobtainable items, and when you spin some crate, you can get the pattern like this:
-I-I-(I-I-G)-I-G-
It proves 4 unobtainable items is just fake or decorate. That also proves the pattern is not the semi-circle like we view it by eyes. The starting point is picked up random, I can't tell which one is starting point, I just simply pick 1 point of pattern and start the trial until the old pattern is appeared again, and then I get the loop.
I have no clue the angle of spin, because as you see the 1st post, I start with one point, I don't go random point on semi-circle, I can't tell you anything about it.I don't know if you have noticed, but some others have as well as I, that as soon as you let go of the spin the crates winnings has already been decided for that spin. Is spinning a factor? Probably not in terms of actual spinning, but maybe increasing the angle of the pointer from the y-axis may change the "pattern"
I hope my answer will help
Thank for comment -
Now guess why CF always needs a Internet connection and will never be available in a single-player mode with the BM.
Pokemon has been available without a internet connection that could send you the value numbers and soon the players made a RNG Generator and they were able to get a shiny with no problem.
Every action made influenced the RNG.
Since the BM isn't in any folder on the PC, nobody will be able to tell the exact values for each action. Maybe with enough money,but hey...
And Demon..sure it's luck, but..
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As long as this game is indicated the RNG game, I believe the a file store in our PC or the host. Sometimes we get the GR SWAT spray without internet connection, and we are able to spin these crates again, it means the prizes will not be claimed if the outcome is GR SWAT spray. In conclusion, the file which contains the specific value number belongs the host/ the company. However, we do have some players with combo win (2 winning items or 3 winning items in a row), this case happens a lot in BM, it proves the pattern is existed and we can follow it somehow.Now guess why CF always needs a Internet connection and will never be available in a single-player mode with the BM.
Pokemon has been available without a internet connection that could send you the value numbers and soon the players made a RNG Generator and they were able to get a shiny with no problem.
Every action made influenced the RNG.
Since the BM isn't in any folder on the PC, nobody will be able to tell the exact values for each action. Maybe with enough money,but hey...
And Demon..sure it's luck, but..
In sum,the value file you mention before is belonged to host server, but the internet connection allows we move the hidden pattern correspond to each value. -
no, it's all about luck, my friend knows i certain places to spin the circle thing, he does a special thing, and he have almost all the GP BM gun and he is like stuff sergent only
I have all GP BM guns, and about over 8 ZP perm items/ guns including some seasonal guns. And I'm still wondering why some common items keep repeat again. Do you think the % of winning items exist? I believe the % winning is existed and the reason I make this thread is learn about that % -
MisterMunzta wrote: »The variable that gives the most chances of winning is unfortunately the amount of money you pour into the BM...
That's the only variable which we can control and which we know will improve our chances of winning. Nothing more... what a shame.
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' wrote:OMG[Thank;3072781']
- The number of BM permanent items you already own may decrease your chance of new BM perm items because it is one of factor of formula.
I think that might be true. Rank might decrease chances as well. Just from my experience, I seemed to win more guns at lower rank (lower than captain).. but also had less permanent guns then. But on my alts with less permanent guns and lower rank I seem to win guns much more easily.
I think they give better chances to lower ranks and people with less permanent guns so they get addicted. You win 1, you think "wow this is pretty easy, not as hard as everyone says" so then they go deposit more zp and get addicted to the game. -
Stop trying to find patterns, there are no patterns or formulas whatsoever. It's all randomly generated number sequences that correspond to a determinate number as explained here:
http://forum.z8games.com/showthread.php?t=143145
There isn't such thing as a formula related to your rank, timezone, or color of your underwear.
Some people say that the first weapon is easier to win, so that we get addicted and we start spending zp. Depending in how far you are at maths, when you reach probability you can easily explain that.
Let's say 1/100 it's the probability of winning M16s (Your first weapon), and 1/100 is the probability of winning, let's say, M4 custom. The probability of winning both weapons is (1/100) x (1/100) = 1/10000 = 0.0001 . Of course, that is when you buy one crate only for each.
The complete formula of the Bernulli formula can be found here:
http://mathbits.com/mathbits/tisection/statistics2/bernoulli.htm
However, we'd need to know what the probability of winning each weapon is, thing we don't. -
xxRapidConectXx wrote: »Some people say that the first weapon is easier to win, so that we get addicted and we start spending zp.
Not true :bb i spend almost 50/150€ on the game and don't won nothing.
Some time later i won a x-mas mega crate, and in that crate i won minimi x-mas :b
Some time later bought 10 crates of thompson and won in the last one.
Don't won anything more
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xxRapidConectXx wrote: »
Some people say that the first weapon is easier to win, so that we get addicted and we start spending zp. Depending in how far you are at maths, when you reach probability you can easily explain that.
Let's say 1/100 it's the probability of winning M16s (Your first weapon), and 1/100 is the probability of winning, let's say, M4 custom. The probability of winning both weapons is (1/100) x (1/100) = 1/10000 = 0.0001 . Of course, that is when you buy one crate only for each.
then maybe it's just a coincidence. math isn't my hobby, so I'll let you guys sit there and try to figure it out. -
Thank you! This is exactly what I've been saying. Thank you for not being one of the many sheep who simply continue to spout the phrase "It's all random, it's all luck herp derp." If you haven't seen the source code, you can't say it's "all luck"! I still hypothesize that it's impossible for certain players to win certain guns. In any case, we know there's some sort of formula; this thread is boss
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You did some good job there, and as I always say, the "Perfect Random" DOESN'T exist, in the life as in CrossFire.
This is not a question of "Crate's Number", or where you spin, the only thing that we are sure to know actually are :
- The 3rd crate is ALWAYS GP
- The other crates are decorations
- Buying a large amount of crates INCREASES the chance of winning the permanent gun.
But I disagree with your theory, I still believe in FireEagle's theory
(remember? The candy boxes one !)
My opinion, and again, nice job. -
Its just like the pokies - or - one arm bandits/slot machines
To each individual it may appear random, but over a set time period a payout rate will be observable.
Casino's in Australia are forced to abide by fixed payout/payback rates. Its a well known fact that people identify when jackpots haven't gone off, and squat machines in order to collect - as the payout ratio dictates that the Jackpot MUST pay soon.
This will be no different - but to crack the rate and sequence you would need everyone's BM results.
Having said that - 35 mins - sweet spot -
' wrote:OMG[Thank;3072793']yeah, it's luck but as I mention before, if you have the formula, you can control the items you win after the 1st luck crate
I agree. You COULD control the items you win. But, as stated before, there are too many codes to crack here. It would take too long to figure out the actual order. And no (to others), its not luck. I don't believe in luck. If i did, i would have a 4-leaf clover on me at all times. Do any of you have any lucky charms on before you spin crates? No? Then why call it luck if you don't believe in it yourself? Its just chance. Chance on where you start on your first crate, and where you spin your crates. As for me, I'll just buy 10 crates and spin randomly hoping I get something.
Anyway, good job. Probably a waste of time but still interesting to read and think about your observations. ^_^ -
Never mind, just relaxI didnt get it.... SorryThank you! This is exactly what I've been saying. Thank you for not being one of the many sheep who simply continue to spout the phrase "It's all random, it's all luck herp derp." If you haven't seen the source code, you can't say it's "all luck"! I still hypothesize that it's impossible for certain players to win certain guns. In any case, we know there's some sort of formula; this thread is bossNanoCooper wrote: »
You did some good job there, and as I always say, the "Perfect Random" DOESN'T exist, in the life as in CrossFire.
This is not a question of "Crate's Number", or where you spin, the only thing that we are sure to know actually are :
- The 3rd crate is ALWAYS GP
- The other crates are decorations
- Buying a large amount of crates INCREASES the chance of winning the permanent gun.
But I disagree with your theory, I still believe in FireEagle's theory
(remember? The candy boxes one !)
My opinion, and again, nice job.Its just like the pokies - or - one arm bandits/slot machines
To each individual it may appear random, but over a set time period a payout rate will be observable.
Casino's in Australia are forced to abide by fixed payout/payback rates. Its a well known fact that people identify when jackpots haven't gone off, and squat machines in order to collect - as the payout ratio dictates that the Jackpot MUST pay soon.
This will be no different - but to crack the rate and sequence you would need everyone's BM results.
Having said that - 35 mins - sweet spotI agree. You COULD control the items you win. But, as stated before, there are too many codes to crack here. It would take too long to figure out the actual order. And no (to others), its not luck. I don't believe in luck. If i did, i would have a 4-leaf clover on me at all times. Do any of you have any lucky charms on before you spin crates? No? Then why call it luck if you don't believe in it yourself? Its just chance. Chance on where you start on your first crate, and where you spin your crates. As for me, I'll just buy 10 crates and spin randomly hoping I get something.
Anyway, good job. Probably a waste of time but still interesting to read and think about your observations. ^_^
Thank for all supporting.
I'll update new observation soon
![]OMG[Thank](https://z8games.akamaized.net/cfna/forum/customavatars/22/navatar_9157322.gif){kind=avatar}
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