Black Market (Observation)

Hello everyone,
I make this thread to discuss about BM.
If you believe it's all luck, then we take a look to see if it's all luck at all.
I have many question in my head, and I believe you may have it too, why the winning gun has very low chance to win? what percent? What is the base of that percent? Why some people win with few crate? Why some of us need more? So my topic is created to find out what we don't look back what we got from some temporary/ perm items, and figure how the black market pick up the winner.
Crossfire is RNG (Random Number Generator) game. It proves itself because everytime you use a specific gun, you never do exactly a certain number. For example, let see M16 damage chart.
M16

~~5 meters~~
Hand/Arm: 26, 26.
Foot/Leg: 18, 18, 18.
Back/Chest: 32, 33.
Headshot: 100.
~~15 meters~~
Hand/Arm: 26, 26.
Foot/Leg: 18, 17, 18.
Back/Chest: 31, 31.
Headshot: 100.
~~30 meters~~
Hand/Arm: 26, 25, 26.
Foot/Leg: 17, 17.
Back/Chest: 31, 31, 31.
Headshot: 100.

The damage chart above is come from this thread http://forum.z8games.com/showthread.php?t=185345, credit to GodsGunman. As you see 15 meters Foot/ Leg, the damage go 18, 17, 18, it's not always 18. This difference leads to the damage of Crossfire is calculated by a certain formula, and so is BM with a very specific formula that we don't figure so far.
Today,I make a trial and record the items I won, and I find out something about BM. I start with 100 Crates R93T2 at only 1 point on the semi-circle. The point is shown on the below picture:

I mark each item with unique letter. I show each with these 2 pictures below:


Here is the record of 100 crates:

If you see (7/B), that means the item come out is Expand grenade 7 days or 1 day. However, I'm unable to identify which one.
So far, the record give me some conclusions:

Conclusion which I make sure it corrects:
- BM is go with luck correctly, but only the very 1st crate
- After the 1st crate, the rest is calculated by a specific formula
- BM has its own pattern code with the formula moves its pattern
- The digit "F" item you won is GP with very high chance, maybe 100%
- The digit "1" item has least chance to show up
- The BM items is NOT listed as the real semi circle like this or like we see:

- Switch channel or re-log game will move/reset your certain pattern.
- Receive damage or deal damage from/to someone will move your certain pattern.
- If you are very close to the winning items, it's not true spot because we win GP at 3rd spot that means every 3 items in the semi-circle contain GP, but you can see the 4 unobtainable items is not follow the rules (3 items which GP is last item). It proves the 4 unobtainable items is completely fake.

Conclusion which I don't sure, but maybe it affects the formula/ pattern/ BM.
- The number of BM permanent items you already own may decrease your chance of new BM perm items because it is one of factor of formula.
- The GP and ZP crates may have a big difference about their pattern or formula
- Each winning gun may have difference patterns.

The goal of RNG method is find out the formula and pattern of BM so I'm able to control my bad pattern to a good pattern or close enough to winning pattern.

After what you read, if you still believe it's all luck, then I'm sorry to waste your time, but I do believe some of forumer will understand what I'm trying to do

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UPDATE

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Thank you all supporter, comment. I have a new observation and I also have some new conclusions to share with you.

Thank for the supporting video of GodsGunman, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IhHtXBcJrQ&list=UUbEXJo9YaTAoFpMoDUnogJg&index=1&feature=plcp, credit to GodsGunman, I record his 151 crates. In this video, he will start with only 1 point as you can view.

This is the record of 150 crates:

Sorry, It is 150 crates, but I was messed up. I don't know which one should be removed, I'll check it later.
We both try on same crate but different spots, and I find something which make me notice most.


- This may lead to 3 possible cases:
1st case: different spot leads to different items. However, the sequences and the arrangement of these items could be the same.
2nd case: different spot doesn't lead to different sequences and arrangement. However, other factor may change the item you receive.
3rd case: both of 2 these patterns is a piece of the whole long pattern
Whichever case it is, we still can predict this pattern is existed

Other thing on the GodGunman's trial, you may need to watch the video at 3:30 and in my record, he gets 2 coupons at same GP crate
- It confirms you are able to get 2 coupons at same GP crates but very low chance

After that, he get 1 more coupon, then some useful stuff and then 5000 GP with useful stuffs again.
- I would say he was in the good pattern, 5000 GP is a good deal for 1 GP crate.

Unfortunately, he runs out of GP crate and buy it again, at the rest of video he get these spray stuff or temporary weapon like beginning of the video.
- This means I suggest if you go back the black market, you may move your good pattern and turn it to another one. However, I suggest this is true 70% in this case, I do not confirm it's true completely.

In sum, these conclusions is true as I know:
- 1 GP crate is able to get 2 coupons but very low chance (even under 1%)
- Some of patterns can repeat in consequent and up to 4 times or more than that
- Spray stuff has more chance to get than temporary guns

Conclusion which I do not confirm fully, but it may be true:
- When you are in good pattern and run out of crate but you want more crates, you shouldn't go back to black market and buy more crates, you should stay at semi-circle and buy more crates at that scene. This applies on GP crates.