How many Royal Dragon crates should I get?

This is my current BM inventory.

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I am thinking about purchasing 50 Royal Dragon crates, in hopes of getting the mauser and kukri.

None of the crates I currently own can substitute for the mauser, but both the X-mas and Halloween crates have a melee weapon, which could make the kukri near useless to obtain.

Of course, there is the possibility that I will not receive any melee weapons from both crates, and the Royal Dragon crates might provide the melee that I wish to have.

How many Royal Dragon crates do you think I should purchase?
50? 30? 179?

--EDIT--
I'd also like to mention that I have an M4A1-Silver, and I would have little use for the M4A1 Royal Dragon (except for the looks), and that the only pistol I have is the USP. I have no permanent melee weapons except for the knife.
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