Done with GP crates !

http://forum.z8games.com/showthread.php?t=39663
Guess your that unlucky.

VATAV wrote: »

3 popular theories on how BM works.
1. Really low odds. Just having the win chance at 1% is enough to make 1,000+ streaks of nothing common.

2. It is based on a time. Basically you can only win if you open at a specific time (that is most likely random). It would explain the repetitive pattern of no winners followed by 3+ winners in a short time followed by no winners.

3. It is based on what number you are on opening a crate. Example the next crate win for that gun on the server will be the 27th of that crate and once it is won it resets to another random number like the 56th. Would explain why when QBZ-Camo first came out there was hundreds of winners in a short time.

As soon as you try to understand Black market, you're lost:rolleyes:

uDream wrote: »

As soon as you try to understand Black market, you're lost:rolleyes:

Well considering it is how much I lost that made me want to understand it...
I'd say it is a vicious cycle.

CryingMonkey wrote: »

Just keep on spinning. Spin for fun and Coupons not for guns, so you're not that dissapointed. Winning them make it waaay better.

Took me
300K GP for 1 QBZ Camo
300 crates for 2 Thompsons/1 Winchester
500K GP for 3 Deagle Camo
4 Crates for 2 Aug Camo
20 Crates for Anaconda Adv

Spent quite alot of ZP and no ZP guns
But I my AK Gold/Deagle Gold and Perm Axe

....dayummm

VATAV wrote: »

It also took me just over 1 Million ZP before I won a ZP crate gun, haven't won since.

:O i can hardly believe you... spending over 1000$.. i would have stopped a long time ago if my luck was that bad

I suggest you refer to this thread

VATAV wrote: »

Took me 1.6 MILLION GP before I even won my first GP gun.
It also took me just over 1 Million ZP before I won a ZP crate gun, haven't won since.

3 popular theories on how BM works.
1. Really low odds. Just having the win chance at 1% is enough to make 1,000+ streaks of nothing common.

2. It is based on a time. Basically you can only win if you open at a specific time (that is most likely random). It would explain the repetitive pattern of no winners followed by 3+ winners in a short time followed by no winners.

3. It is based on what number you are on opening a crate. Example the next crate win for that gun on the server will be the 27th of that crate and once it is won it resets to another random number like the 56th. Would explain why when QBZ-Camo first came out there was hundreds of winners in a short time.

I always taught it was (2), however (3) makes quite a bit of sense too especially with the QBZ-95 Camo example. When there is a repetitive pattern of no winners then 3+ winners in a short time frame can also be explained by this, because you could get numbers like 100th crate, 180th crate, 5th crate, 2nd crate, 10th crate. To win at 100th crate and 180th crate there will be 1 winner in those, but when it gets to 5th, 2nd and 10th those 3 winners will happen relatively fast, since there are many people opening crates throughout the day. (of course these numbers are just examples, they might be way higher, there might also be a min value, but likely not because I've seen winners at the same time).

I think that (3) is the most logical of all of it, but of course it probably won't be revealed anytime soon. And don't tell me it's (1), if it was why would there be such a secret behind how it actually works? With (2) and (3) there is a way to better your odds of winning thus, it's not fair if people abuse that. (a reason to keep it secret), but if the real algorithm was (1) (i.e. a win chance of 1% or 2%) then each time would have the same odds of winning and the information could be let out to the public). Many would still by crates in hopes of winning if that was revealed. Well that's my opinion, anyone agree or disagree?

Chimpzz wrote: »

I won this on the day it came out with just 16,000 GP, since they were giving it away

I thought it was a good time to go for it, since 25 people in a minute won it for the entire day.

GP guns are hard to win though.

Yes they are. Actually fun to use when they get patched

Any programmer out there might want to take a crack on this?

When I was in college, taking C++. There was a random number generator function. Basically it randomly generates a number. If you set the parameters for winning each item, gun, etc by a range of numbers, what ever the parameter the randomly generated number falls that item or gun assigned to the parameter will be shown.

So you can set, gun number 1 to 2, spray 3 to 30, coupon 31 to 81, temp guns 82 to 100 etc, and random number will be from 1 to 100. The chance of getting 1 or 2 is pretty small since it is random.

Anyway, someone who knows programming might have theories other than mine?

475 ZP Crates until i won AK Scope..

VATAV wrote: »

It also took me just over 1 Million ZP before I won a ZP crate gun, haven't won since.

VATAV "Over 1,700+ ZP crates bought and opened and only won 2 ZP guns."

Which one is true?

Most likely based on time.How the fck would I win 4 guns in a row and 30 min later I failed another 300k on anaconda adv?700k at least spend on it now.Same as 600k,maybe more on msg90 to win it on my alt in 10 crates -.-

Took me like 300k zp and 2.1 million gp before I won my first gun these days I just spin for fun and win the occasional gun

CryingMonkey wrote: »

Just keep on spinning. Spin for fun and Coupons not for guns, so you're not that dissapointed. Winning them make it waaay better.

Took me
300K GP for 1 QBZ Camo
300 crates for 2 Thompsons/1 Winchester
500K GP for 3 Deagle Camo
4 Crates for 2 Aug Camo
20 Crates for Anaconda Adv

Spent quite alot of ZP and no ZP guns
But I my AK Gold/Deagle Gold and Perm Axe

I'm more lucky:
6/10 Crates for 1 MauserM1896
9/10 Crates for 1 ScarLight Red Dragon
4/5 Crates for 1 De-C
6/10 Crates 1 M14EBR
3/5 Crates for 1 Thompson
1/5Crates for Winchester
8/10 Crates for 1 Anaconda-Adv.

I my permanent axe too, and AK-knife

Now, I haven't got ZP, and i thing I won't have more luck

saBba1337 wrote: »

i spun these only on the AWM red in a single day and i didn't even see it.. oh well

looool!! what a fail