Will 100k ZP win me any guns?

It's random, no one knows.

Luck doesn't change depending on how much money you throw at it. You could win something, you could not, it's random.

0Rifle0 wrote: »

Ehm I'm spinning more than 100 crates

75 crate m4 patriot, 50 crate LM, 180-430 crate QBZ camo

Thats about 305-555 crates in total I will spin.....will that be likely or not I win a gun?

Don't ignore the posts by the 2 most active forumers in this thread please.

Rory and I both stated it was random. There is no set chance you will win a crate gun. It could be 1:1 ratio or 1:100000 ratio, the odds are COMPLETELY random.

Black Market is a lottery, so it's all about luck.

SEG_Golden wrote: »

Nope that is not true at all! In fact, i will create a post that will indicate for you guys when you win a gun or not. How it is even determined. I know how because i was a victim of it and many others. I don't make up bs, i found out.

So if your logic (100+ crates) is correct I can't have won about 10 of my black market guns?

It is indeed all about luck, take me as example. I bought 300k zp and won fn minimi, m4 costum, awm rd and m14ebr. Then I bought 300k again and spend 100k full on m4 patriot, got nothing, 200k full on kriss LM and also dont got it. I also spend 650k GP on DE Camo and dont got it. The QBZ-camo cost me 200k gp while my friend got it for 2000 GP (1 crate). Still, you get a lot of coupons wich is good. Got combat axe golden ak golden m4 etc.

For my new mod friend


Tips of advice: This might work, there is no guarentee, but try to mass as much gp/zp as u can. (THIS ONLY WORKS IF U DO NOT HAVE A SINGLE CRATE GUN). Try to get approximately 200k gp at least, then spend it all (expect to lose it, if u want to buy a gun in the item shop buy one, and spend the rest on crates). Buy the crates for the gun you want to get. 10 crates at a time, DON'T PILE THEM UP! Then like Godspeed good luck and keep spinning. The most common winning crates are usually:

Thomson/Winchester: Approx. 250 crates (u could get this early, or late)
Deagle Camo: Approx. 100-200(+50) or (-50) crates
Beretta: Approx. 200 crates
AK-47 Camo: Approx. 100-250 crates(+50) or (-50)
Anaconda Black: Im not aware of this(maybe someone can update me? :S)
AUG CAMO: Approx. 300 crates (Could be even more! :S)
P90 CAMO: Relatively new to me (Someone update me? :S)
PSG-(i don't know what its acronym is :S) Never bought this crate or even looked it up. xD
XM8 Adv: Approx. 125-250 Crates(this is one of the guns you can get really early or really late)
M16 CAMO: Approx. 100-300 Crates (HUGE GAP when u get this gun)
QBZ CAMO: Approx. 100-150 Crates (CURRENTLY, this is the easiest gun to get in the Black market right now, since usually guns that are introduced in the following patch are usually more easier on rewards)

*Note that this may not apply to everyone! Under certain circumstances u might have a difference of plus 50 or minus 50 crates. This information show here, is what most of the ppl in crossfire have won for their crate guns, as well as my guns that i have to prove for it.*

SEG_Golden wrote: »

(THIS ONLY WORKS IF U DO NOT HAVE A SINGLE CRATE GUN

Got my first crate gun in 1 crate. :rolleyes:

SEG_Golden wrote: »

Thomson/Winchester: Approx. 250 crates 20
Deagle Camo: Approx. 100-200(+50) or (-50) crates 30
Beretta: Approx. 200 crates 20
Anaconda Black: Im not aware of this(maybe someone can update me? :S) 10
AUG CAMO: Approx. 300 crates (Could be even more! :S) 30
P90 CAMO: Relatively new to me (Someone update me? :S) 20
XM8 Adv: Approx. 125-250 Crates(this is one of the guns you can get really early or really late) 10
QBZ CAMO: Approx. 100-150 Crates (CURRENTLY, this is the easiest gun to get in the Black market right now, since usually guns that are introduced in the following patch are usually more easier on rewards No, just more people are buying it compared to the other crates.)

Maybe,maybe not.I bought 200 crates of 3 different guns,failed.the next day I got all of them in less than 10 crates.I spin zp crates for coupons/gp only anyways.

SEG_Golden wrote: »

Nope, you have no chance... Sorry to be the spolier but you have to buy at least 100+ crates to have to most chance of winning that gun. When your spinning your gonna win nothing, but on the brightside at least you get coupons! :P

So I bought 50 MG3 crates and I won
I bought 40 Xmas Crates and I won the Minmi
I bought 1 Easter Crate and I won SL RD...

Yeah ok it's all lucky buddy

*ahem*
WELLLLLL
(blarg boring stuff below)

Using probability, each crate that you buy will have an equal chance to win a permanent gun. Buying multiple crates will NOT increase the probability of winning a permanent guns, which is what many of the forumers here are referring to.

For example, let's say that QBZ-Camo crates have a 2% chance of winning that specified permanent gun. Regardless of the amount of crates that you buy, the probability of winning the QBZ-Camo will remain at 2%.

Of course, at this moment, you will scream "BUT IF I BUY MORE THERE'S MORE LIKELIHOOD!"

You would be talking about something different, NOT probability. Having more crates does NOT increase the likelihood, rather in increases the amount of chances that you have to win the permanent gun.

Which will lead us to statistics.

According to statistics, if we buy 100 QBZ-Camo crates, and, again, there is a 2% chance of winning it, we will win 2 QBZ-Camo's, because, after all 2% of 100 is 2. Of course, that is according to STATISTICS.
So to contrast, statistics is more of a reference to how many chances (or crates, in this passage) that you have to win the specified item, while probability is more of a reference to the likelihood of EACH individual chance (or crate) that you have to win the specified item.

Of course, you will ask, "SO IS IT RANDOM OR NOT???!?!?!1!11"
The answer is, it is BOTH.

The chance to win a gun in each crate is completely random, there is no way to control the outcome of that (unless, of course, you hack the Black Market somehow). HOWEVER, when you talk about the chance to win a gun in a specified number of crates, it is NOT random, because, if you use some simple logic, you will find that if you have more chances, you USUALLY win more often that if you have less chances.

Of course, there will be certain players that say "YOU'RE A [Censored] LIAR!!!!11!111 IT'S COMPLETELY RANDOM."

If you wish to tell me that it is COMPLETELY random, then I beg you to go ahead and make an experiment that tests whether or not having more chances leads to more wins. And I will assure you that if the experiment was performed properly (enough trials and enough of a gap to make a large difference), you WILL find that having more chances leads to more wins.

"You just wasted five (5) minutes of my [Censored] time, Pancakes. This is [Censored] logic."

RTOman wrote: »

Not true, He could win 100,000 and 200,000 GP or even a million...

Technically, you could win up to 100 million GP in 100 crates.

GoPancakes wrote: »

*ahem*
WELLLLLL
(blarg boring stuff below)

Using probability, each crate that you buy will have an equal chance to win a permanent gun. Buying multiple crates will NOT increase the probability of winning a permanent guns, which is what many of the forumers here are referring to.

For example, let's say that QBZ-Camo crates have a 2% chance of winning that specified permanent gun. Regardless of the amount of crates that you buy, the probability of winning the QBZ-Camo will remain at 2%.

Of course, at this moment, you will scream "BUT IF I BUY MORE THERE'S MORE LIKELIHOOD!"

You would be talking about something different, NOT probability. Having more crates does NOT increase the likelihood, rather in increases the amount of chances that you have to win the permanent gun.

Which will lead us to statistics.

According to statistics, if we buy 100 QBZ-Camo crates, and, again, there is a 2% chance of winning it, we will win 2 QBZ-Camo's, because, after all 2% of 100 is 2. Of course, that is according to STATISTICS.
So to contrast, statistics is more of a reference to how many chances (or crates, in this passage) that you have to win the specified item, while probability is more of a reference to the likelihood of EACH individual chance (or crate) that you have to win the specified item.

Of course, you will ask, "SO IS IT RANDOM OR NOT???!?!?!1!11"
The answer is, it is BOTH.

The chance to win a gun in each crate is completely random, there is no way to control the outcome of that (unless, of course, you hack the Black Market somehow). HOWEVER, when you talk about the chance to win a gun in a specified number of crates, it is NOT random, because, if you use some simple logic, you will find that if you have more chances, you USUALLY win more often that if you have less chances.

Of course, there will be certain players that say "YOU'RE A [Censored] LIAR!!!!11!111 IT'S COMPLETELY RANDOM."

If you wish to tell me that it is COMPLETELY random, then I beg you to go ahead and make an experiment that tests whether or not having more chances leads to more wins. And I will assure you that if the experiment was performed properly (enough trials and enough of a gap to make a large difference), you WILL find that having more chances leads to more wins.

"You just wasted five (5) minutes of my [Censored] time, Pancakes. This is [Censored] logic."

Stop nerding the posts pancakes, thats my job! :P