Black Market %

DNate54 wrote: »

oh you mean love for your hommies xD
*shy*
gah my heart will break into the pieces

Good or bad? How do you do the question/confused face? O.o

thisgameowns wrote: »

Good or bad? How do you do the question/confused face? O.o

in good place.For second question well i was doing alot rollplaying.So basicly you need only to put heart and soul where ever you go.
My motto is: Never surrender in battlefield even if it is hard for ya.
So thats probably it.If you need more to know feel free to add me on skype,facebook or ask me on xfire

RapidKing23 wrote: »

lol how much money did u waste? I have no luck or certain % with crates, wasted prolly 200K GP, smh....

Like 50$ and a bunch of free zp offers (and viruses related to those offers lol)... was worth it though all I wanted was the shovel, and I got it

DNate54 wrote: »

m4a1 zps crates huh?
well i strongly recommend m4a1c or new m4a1p(p is patriot)
those 2 weapons are best even godsgunman do the review of every gun when it is released.
if you still dont get those 2 weapons buy from bp mall m4a1 silver it have silencer and it costs 8900 bp

Thanks I'll try for the Patriot then, I'm also trying to get the ak-knife or scope, I love the scope. I wish I was here when the Jackhammer came out, I would have spent for that gun.

DeadLikeMe wrote: »

Like 50$ and a bunch of free zp offers (and viruses related to those offers lol)... was worth it though all I wanted was the shovel, and I got it

That take's some guts to do, I lose my paitence after it give's me and error or something related.:/

DNate54 wrote: »

jackhammer will comeback.We dont know when but i can make you sure that devs will put it back again.For ak knife and ak scope you have good taste ak knife is good for gm.recently you could get it from coupons (80)
for ak scope wow i dont remember when i did used it last time hahah xD
i think i will put it back to my bag ^^
but it contains sexy skin and thats why i love it.I wish you good luck in getting all those 3 guns they are sexy,deadly and usefull in any mode's

I hope so, cuz the first time I pick up Jackhammer I did a 5K, in GM. (No knowledge of spray pattern, didn't need to, one shotted all those kills.)
I would use an Ak, but the noise is super annoying in GM, I hate it when noobs spray and pray with it, I even don't like when pro pinpointers use it. Unless they do it properly. The Ak scope looks awesome man, it's the best looking gun on this cf. That's why I'm trying to get my own silenced gun, I had an mp5adv I hated it at first time use, 1 year ago, now I love it, I completly learned and mastered the spray pattern, I would use it in GM. But it's not perm.

OT: Do the win ratio go up if u get one crate gun after another, or the rumors of zp guns intially give u more of % to win guns? All though they all should be varied and random at best. These are things I keep hearing and starting to believe into? Not entirely, everything requires luck, but somethings are set as well.

DNate54 wrote: »

no ratio doesnt go up .Weapons have they own stats and thats all.They only get lower if you destroying them.

I would think so, still can't help it though, these types of rumors can get to one's mind. Thanks for all the help regaurding the zp gun.

I guess there is like 1000 spots to win
they just put like 5-10 of the gun u can win
and maybe 200 spray
100 flash things
and that stuff
and if your lucky you would land on that spot (5-10)

Hells_Judge wrote: »

In the eventuality of fixed percentage for each items in the crates, I can give you the beginning of an answer. After opening more than 2000 GP crates (at least 200 of each weapon) I have come to this :

In case you can't do your own math: the 0,32% listed is ONLY for items appearing in slot 1. So if you add all items up (6510), you'd only be at a 0,11% (0,107%) chance per crate.

AR3SN4L4L1FE wrote: »

But he said there are no permanent items in the other slots, only in slot 1 (1.7/2170)*100 =0.32
I dont know where you got 6510 from?

You can win it in other slots, but it puts it into the 1st one anyway.

Off Topic: Rhad strikes again.

AR3SN4L4L1FE wrote: »

But he said there are no permanent items in the other slots, only in slot 1 (1.7/2170)*100 =0.32
I dont know where you got 6510 from?

6510 is the amount of items you get if you count all items in the crate. And you can win multiple guns in a single crate (not of the same type though), so guns in another slot than the first are possible. Right now there is no GP crate with 3 perm guns yet, so you could indeed ignore the 3rd slot (especially since slot 3 only gives GP atm).
Secondly, Rhad made his columns arranged by slots, but we don't know if this is the way the BM works or not. If it is, I was wrong. If the BM just selects 3 items out of a large pool (or 2 items and 1 GP amount) and just happens to show perm weapons as first, it's probably something in between 0,11 and 0,32. (0,16 if you go with 4340 items chosen). Which means I was still wrong

Hells_Judge wrote: »

In fact, you're right and Bear is wrong.
The % are already on a per crates basis.

Yes the total amount of "items" is 6510 (if you count GP as an item) but each crates gives 3. And each slot seems independent from the others (all give different items). The last one always gives GP and the first one is where the permanent weapon appears (except in the Thomson/Winchester, should you win the 2 weapons at the same time).

So, yes, for the 2170 crates I opened, 0.32% of them gave me a permanent weapon. That's the closest I can give you as a "win percentage".

Bear is an idiot anyway
Sprays, coupons and temps can appear in slot 1 and 2. So are they just in both drawing pools then? If you're bored enough, you can check if the same sprays can appear in both slots for certain crates.... After all, spray type is included with the info for me and henry.

I see.... Ignore all my posts then, I'm no match for the great Statistician of Charon.

Shouldn't Tommy/Winch both be in slot 1? I'm too lazy to find your list per crates in our thread to check whether any of those guns has already been won...

While technology itself cannot create a purely random chance, coding usually uses a trick that gets it as close to random as possible, a number that still will cause you trouble that you won't be figuring it out just by spinning a few hundred crates of each type.

In the end, there is no trick nor cheat to getting a permanent weapon in a crate. You could get it after only one crate, or you could get it after a few thousand crates, or hell even more. In this case it's not exactly luck, it's luck of draw.

DNate54 wrote: »

well idc about statistic its luck if you win the gun rest is useless thing

Maybe you don't care about statistics but the thread creator does so, in this thread, the only useless thing is any post like yours. If you don't care about something, don't bother to post a message just to say it next time.

[MOD]Rex wrote: »

While technology itself cannot create a purely random chance, coding usually uses a trick that gets it as close to random as possible, a number that still will cause you trouble that you won't be figuring it out just by spinning a few hundred crates of each type.

I'm well aware of that fact, that's why I carefully said :

Hells_Judge wrote: »

In the eventuality of fixed percentage for each items in the crates, I can give you the beginning of an answer.

If the black market is simply a fixed % for each item (i.e. 0.25% to win the perm, 6% to get a coupon, etc.) the more crates you will open, the closer you will get to these fixed %.
The ability of CF to create randomness isn't really important in this case, if you're trying to find these %, only the numbers of samples is important.
I know I'm far from having enough numbers though, that's why you don't see me post a "I KNOW THE STATS FOR THE BM !!!" thread.

[MOD]Rex wrote: »

In the end, there is no trick nor cheat to getting a permanent weapon in a crate. You could get it after only one crate, or you could get it after a few thousand crates, or hell even more. In this case it's not exactly luck, it's luck of draw.

I'm also fully aware there's no trick to win, my 'project' at this point, is just gathering information and putting them in fancy tables. Even if one day, I open enough crates and get as close to the real numbers as possible, I still wouldn't be able to tell someone how to win a weapon.
This is not the purpose of these stats ; answering to the kind of question OT asked is :

Helios7122 wrote: »

What is the 'GP' Black Market % win rate????
[...]
*THIS IS NOT A RAGE, MORE CURIOSITY*

DNate54 wrote: »

well if you want to know i did spend 1000$ on this game and this is result(ignore the desert eagle scope i didnt get from crates):

http://clan.z8games.com/charstat_cf.aspx?usn=5083795

(edited):
(also you dont need to apologies to me,i just saying this statistic for having average account with money)

I came across this CRAZY account a few days ago. Guess how much he spent.

http://youtu.be/***VJBflVuk


There are a lot of youtube tutorials teaching you where to stop the spinning of the wheel, e.g. lining up certain lines around the wheel. Anyone tried that here? Some ppl claimed success.