Dog Tag Calculations (Good enough 2 sticky?)
Today I will be posting calculations or chances of you getting dog tags. It's kinda bs because when there are like 1 more letter you need it took me "4" weeks to get it. WOW! wdf!
Reference:
C R1 O S1 S2 F I R2 E
When you get a dog tag, that means you have a decrease chance or probability of getting the letter you need next.
KEEP IN MIND THAT ALL THE ANSWERS ARE ROUNDED
*Let's solve this using a formula:*
P(A)= n (Event space)/n (Sample space)
Theoretical Probability: is a math prediction of the likelihood of an event to occur.
An event space is a certain success or failure.
A sample space is all the possible outcomes you can get from a situation.
Let's say there are no letters filled, that means the probability of getting any letter is:
P(any letter)= 1/1 > 100%
Next when you want to get any other letter except the one you got before (let's say its F)
then:
P(not including F)= 8/9 > 0.88 > (convert to %) 88%
Let's say you need to get any other letter then the other 2 (we say it's F & C)
P(not including F&C)= 7/9 > 0.77 > 77%
Then it goes: (dog tags)
6 remaining > 66%
5 remaining > 55%
4 remaining > 44%
3 remaining > 33%
2 remaining > 22%
1 remaining > 11%
OR WE COULD SAY THE OPPOSITE
P(A')= 1-P(A)
(This is the probability of getting a letter THAT YOU DO NOT NEED)
When you have (this # remaining)
9 remaining > 0%
8 remaining > 11%
7 remaining > 22%
6 remaining > 33%
5 remaining > 44%
4 remaining > 55%
3 remaining > 66%
2 remaining > 77%
1 remaining > 88%
Some of you might have taken Grade 12 Data Management (MDM4U) and I kinda applied it to here since I wanted to know the probability of getting the letter I need myself and I thought why not post it here... Might be useful to someone... Hopefully this maybe a sticky.
Reference:
C R1 O S1 S2 F I R2 E
When you get a dog tag, that means you have a decrease chance or probability of getting the letter you need next.
KEEP IN MIND THAT ALL THE ANSWERS ARE ROUNDED
*Let's solve this using a formula:*
P(A)= n (Event space)/n (Sample space)
Theoretical Probability: is a math prediction of the likelihood of an event to occur.
An event space is a certain success or failure.
A sample space is all the possible outcomes you can get from a situation.
Let's say there are no letters filled, that means the probability of getting any letter is:
P(any letter)= 1/1 > 100%
Next when you want to get any other letter except the one you got before (let's say its F)
then:
P(not including F)= 8/9 > 0.88 > (convert to %) 88%
Let's say you need to get any other letter then the other 2 (we say it's F & C)
P(not including F&C)= 7/9 > 0.77 > 77%
Then it goes: (dog tags)
6 remaining > 66%
5 remaining > 55%
4 remaining > 44%
3 remaining > 33%
2 remaining > 22%
1 remaining > 11%
OR WE COULD SAY THE OPPOSITE
P(A')= 1-P(A)
(This is the probability of getting a letter THAT YOU DO NOT NEED)
When you have (this # remaining)
9 remaining > 0%
8 remaining > 11%
7 remaining > 22%
6 remaining > 33%
5 remaining > 44%
4 remaining > 55%
3 remaining > 66%
2 remaining > 77%
1 remaining > 88%
Some of you might have taken Grade 12 Data Management (MDM4U) and I kinda applied it to here since I wanted to know the probability of getting the letter I need myself and I thought why not post it here... Might be useful to someone... Hopefully this maybe a sticky.
Comments
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EatMyFragMC wrote: »can you rewrite that in english
The more letters you have, the less likely you are to get one you need.
When you're down to just needing one last letter, it's like rolling a 10 sided die once a day trying to get a 1. It could happen right away, or take weeks. -
Or you could do the harder mission to get the dog tags that you don't have... 1 out of 3 missions will be harder than the two other missions. I chose to do the harder mission last month and I got the last letter. The harder the mission is the least chance of you getting the same letter. The harder mission is usually the second or third, never the first one.
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[MOD]BlindRob wrote: »The more letters you have, the less likely you are to get one you need.
When you're down to just needing one last letter, it's like rolling a 10 sided die once a day trying to get a 1. It could happen right away, or take weeks.
Your right, you might never know if you are going to get the last letter or not, it's the chance or odds you can get the letter. Basically playing the lottery or poker. (Like should I go on or not? Is the odds or stakes worth it? Is the risk factor high or low?) Like the person mentioned above:
Your right 'vMiami' there's nothing I can say better!
Quote:
"The longer you play a game (example poker), the longer you play in a round, less likely you are to obtain the card or cards you need. Just instead of using cards, it's dog tags and you're trying to build a straight flush."
Yes it's exactly the same as trying to get a straight flush except we apply that to dog tags! -
LawLinFace wrote: »Or you could do the harder mission to get the dog tags that you don't have... 1 out of 3 missions will be harder than the two other missions. I chose to do the harder mission last month and I got the last letter. The harder the mission is the least chance of you getting the same letter. The harder mission is usually the second or third, never the first one.
Really? Can a GM or Mod please confirm this? If it's true then I will have to re calculate this again. -
It's random... Doing this is the same as the BM "sweet spot" myth.LawLinFace wrote: »Or you could do the harder mission to get the dog tags that you don't have... 1 out of 3 missions will be harder than the two other missions. I chose to do the harder mission last month and I got the last letter. The harder the mission is the least chance of you getting the same letter. The harder mission is usually the second or third, never the first one.
And what missions are technically "harder" anyway? That's completely a matter of opinion. -
[MOD]BlindRob wrote: »The more letters you have, the less likely you are to get one you need.
When you're down to just needing one last letter, it's like rolling a 10 sided die once a day trying to get a 1. It could happen right away, or take weeks.your making this really complicated..
Look up the one above you. The Mod can explain it to you.
The rest is basically numbers and formulas as proof, because I did this in the past and some of the info was not correct and a lot of people wanted proof. -
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CallMeSoul wrote: »This is outright 7th grade math.
You called that 7 grade math? It's Grade 12 Data Management (Math) University level/preparation. (MDM4U)
Clearly you haven't look at the 2 formulas and I highly doubt it that you learn those unless you took the course.
Look up on Google (MDM4U) they teach this stuff and you will need it in university because they teach this and more. -
CallMeSoul wrote: »This is outright 7th grade math.
^^ Exactly, all you did here was add a few fancy words and try make it seem much much more complicated than it actually is... it is pretty obvious calculations that almost anyone could figure out and you wrote a whole wall of text to say divide the number of tags you need by the total amount of tags and there is your probability....
Not sticky material in the slightest I dont really know why you would even think your fancy words that mean nothing would get it stickied... -
teh1337ninj4 wrote: »You called that 7 grade math? It's Grade 12 Data Management (Math) University level/preparation. (MDM4U)
Clearly you haven't look at the 2 formulas and I highly doubt it that you learn those unless you took the course.
Look up on Google (MDM4U) they teach this stuff and you will need it in university because they teach this and more.
Well american university maths seems 100 times more easy than in england... i might fly over there and get a quick and easy degree then... lol -
Im quoting this because it makes complete sense.[MOD]BlindRob wrote: »The more letters you have, the less likely you are to get one you need.
When you're down to just needing one last letter, it's like rolling a 10 sided die once a day trying to get a 1. It could happen right away, or take weeks.
Now we all know about probabilities. Im sure this really wont need stickied but maybe to those who really cant do simple probability math problems such as this.. It might be a good thing to sticky.
I say you have a 60% chance this might be stickied. GOODLUCK.
But yeah. I already knew this was going to be like a 9 sided die and trying to get the C.
Been stuck on that C forever.
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teh1337ninj4 wrote: »You called that 7 grade math? It's Grade 12 Data Management (Math) University level/preparation. (MDM4U)
Clearly you haven't look at the 2 formulas and I highly doubt it that you learn those unless you took the course.
Look up on Google (MDM4U) they teach this stuff and you will need it in university because they teach this and more.
Dude, I did this all in 7th Grade Honors Math. Derp. -
I think that statement is misleading. A better statement might be all answers are rounded down, truncated, or floored.teh1337ninj4 wrote: »KEEP IN MIND THAT ALL THE ANSWERS ARE ROUNDED
Also, it might be more interesting to see the odds of getting any number of remaining tags over any number of days. -
xPikachu_x wrote: »Im quoting this because it makes complete sense.
Now we all know about probabilities. Im sure this really wont need stickied but maybe to those who really cant do simple probability math problems such as this.. It might be a good thing to sticky.
I say you have a 60% chance this might be stickied. GOODLUCK.
But yeah. I already knew this was going to be like a 9 sided die and trying to get the C.
Been stuck on that C forever. 
lol i agree this makes more sence then the other one... -
teh1337ninj4 wrote: »You called that 7 grade math? It's Grade 12 Data Management (Math) University level/preparation. (MDM4U)
Clearly you haven't look at the 2 formulas and I highly doubt it that you learn those unless you took the course.
Look up on Google (MDM4U) they teach this stuff and you will need it in university because they teach this and more.
that is really really basic statistical analysis
in university all of this is covered in maybe 10 minutes
even then most of it is review, you do some of this stuff in algebra 2 in the united states (7th-10th grade) depending what classes you started out in -
that is really really basic statistical analysis
in university all of this is covered in maybe 10 minutes
even then most of it is review, you do some of this stuff in algebra 2 in the united states (7th-10th grade) depending what classes you started out in
I had Algebra 2 in the 6th grade. -
Definition: A European call option is a security giving the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy a single share of a specific stock at a specified price E on a specified future date T. E is called the exercise (or strike) price and T is called the maturity (or expiration) date of the option.
Let V=V(S,t) denote the value of the (European) call option at time t on the closed interval 0 to T if the current market value of the stock is S dollars per share. If r denotes the (constant) short term riskless interest rate and sigma denotes the “volatility parameter” of the stock’s price per share, then Black and Scholes showed that V satisfires the partial differential equation
(1) V_t = rV – rSV_s – (sigma^2S^2V_ss)/2 for 0 < S < infinity and 0 < t < T, subject to the boundary conditions
(2) V(0,t) = 0 and V(S,t)/S approaches 1 as S approaches infinity
And the final condition
(3) V(S,T) =max{S-E, 0}
This problem can be transformed into an equivalent problem of solving the diffusion equation in the upper half-plane subject to a prescribed initial condition related to the final condition (3). (For details see, home problem A plus the last three pages of this handout). It then follows from equation (8) in section 2.4 of our text that
(4) V(S,t)=SN(d_1)-Ee^r(t-T)N(d2)
Where
d_1 = (ln(S/E) + [r+(sigma^2/2)](T-t))/sigma*(T-t)^.5
and
d_2 = (ln(S/E) + [r-(sigma^2/2)](T-t))/sigma*(T-t)^.5
and
N(d)=1/(2pi)^.5 integral e^-p^2/2 dp from negative infinity to d
Denotes the cumulative standard normal distribution function evaluated at d.
Exercises:
A. Fill in the details of the derivation of the Black-Scholes formula (4) for the solution to (1)-(2)-(3) given on the last three pages of this handout.
B. The New York stock exchance closing price per share in dollars of Company X on 28 consecutive Wednesdays is given in the tables below. The short term riskless interest rate during this period, as measured by the yield on the 6-month U.S. Treasury bills, was approximately 5.15 percent per annum. If the current price of Company X is $71.50 per share, use the Black-Scholes model to calculate the value of a European call option on the stock of Company X with exercise price $65 per share, given that 3 months remain until the options maturity date.
That's a college level problem, not what you posted. Just grabbed it off of a homework assignment. -
teh1337ninj4 wrote: »Look up on Google (MDM4U) they teach this stuff and you will need it in university because they teach this and more.
http://www.edugains.ca/resources/LearningMaterials/TIPS/tips4rm/mdm4u/Intro.pdf
that is what i got and it seems alot of "drink the koolaid" approach to teaching
sucks to live in ontario -
[MOD]BlindRob wrote: »The more letters you have, the less likely you are to get one you need.
When you're down to just needing one last letter, it's like rolling a 10 sided die once a day trying to get a 1. It could happen right away, or take weeks.
ya well how about like 4 nouths I AM SICK OF IT
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