My Theory on Crates
Ok so I was thinking today and I may have figured out how the crates work.
I dont think its random. I think it works like this:
For instance lets say there are 10000 crates (remember just an instance)
Lets say they choose numbers like 637, 1690, 3758, 5932, & 8904 out of those 10000 crates. The 637th crate opened will be a winner. The 1690th crate opened will be a winner and so forth all the way down the line.
That is the only way I can think of that explains why you can get hundreds of crates in a row and not win.
I dont know its just a thought.
What do you guys think?
I dont think its random. I think it works like this:
For instance lets say there are 10000 crates (remember just an instance)
Lets say they choose numbers like 637, 1690, 3758, 5932, & 8904 out of those 10000 crates. The 637th crate opened will be a winner. The 1690th crate opened will be a winner and so forth all the way down the line.
That is the only way I can think of that explains why you can get hundreds of crates in a row and not win.
I dont know its just a thought.
What do you guys think?
Comments
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Well if you want to be technical, BM crates can never be random because computers can never actually truly generate random numbers. They just make it seem like it. So they don't really choose, the computer does.
But in essence, it still technically random because we don't know the sequences and there is no 'trick'. -
Well if you want to be technical, BM crates can never be random because computers can never actually truly generate random numbers. They just make it seem like it. So they don't really choose, the computer does.
But in essence, it still technically random because we don't know the sequences and there is no 'trick'.
Totally agree with you.
There should be a difference between ZP and GP crates. For me it seems that I won more easily ZP crate guns as GP crates. ZP crate seems to have a higher probability to give you the permanent guns, but still its luck (needed sometime 80 crates to get the gun, sometime only 5...). -
Nah, the way this works, we would've had a lot more issues. Ever so often people spin the same kind of crate at the same time. Hundreds at least today, spinning the same.
With ping differences, the winner would come down to who has the lowest ping which would make that system very unfair.
No, its simply luck. Random values taken from the lowest possible time value as with most random functions. -
Totally agree with you.
There should be a difference between ZP and GP crates. For me it seems that I won more easily ZP crate guns as GP crates. ZP crate seems to have a higher probability to give you the permanent guns, but still its luck (needed sometime 80 crates to get the gun, sometime only 5...).
I find ZP crates do have higher probability. It generally goes like so:
Standard ZP Crates - Highest Probability
GP Crates - Low Probability due to easier access
Special/Seasonal Crates - Lowest Probability due to rarity
They probably set the % values, making the computer process such. Another reason its not technically 'random' as the computer has to calculate that factor. -
I find ZP crates do have higher probability. It generally goes like so:
Standard ZP Crates - Highest Probability
GP Crates - Low Probability due to easier access
Special/Seasonal Crates - Lowest Probability due to rarity
They probably set the % values, making the computer process such. Another reason its not technically 'random' as the computer has to calculate that factor.
Not sure about special/Seasonal Crates....
For example the Christmas crates were having 3 permanent guns inside and were more expensive (10k ZP instead of 8k ZP for 10 crates.).
One friend told me that if i buy 10 crates i will probably win one of the guns, and yes, I got lucky, got the mp5 xmas (which skin looks really nice). -
We should make a forumwide statistics gathering to know approximately the percentage to win each of the items (permanent or temporary) for all the different types of crates.
I'm willing to take care of the calculation and all, but I'm short on ZP (just have enough for 10 crates).
While I'm sure it's random, it would still be interesting to know the %. -
Not sure about special/Seasonal Crates....
For example the Christmas crates were having 3 permanent guns inside and were more expensive (10k ZP instead of 8k ZP for 10 crates.).
One friend told me that if i buy 10 crates i will probably win one of the guns, and yes, I got lucky, got the mp5 xmas (which skin looks really nice).
Congrats. ^..^
My friend however spent over 100 crates for the Seasonal ZP, and only got the AWM-X from it.
XD Won't even mention the Halloween one.
I think its still a higher percentage because of the multiple weapon factor. -
Nah, the way this works, we would've had a lot more issues. Ever so often people spin the same kind of crate at the same time. Hundreds at least today, spinning the same.
With ping differences, the winner would come down to who has the lowest ping which would make that system very unfair.
No, its simply luck. Random values taken from the lowest possible time value as with most random functions.
So its a percentage basis then? -
I have another theory and it is about timing/wright place spinning.
I have won many weapons in just <10 crates, same place every time , luck?
Here are my 2 vids on youtube, please watch it and comment, thanks
50 xmas zp crates
and
10 ak knife crates -
Nice theory, but I think it's just pure luck. Thing is if your theory is true then it's just the matter of holding onto the Spin button at the winner crate. You'll never know where the winner weapon is until you spin it.
You win the weapon before your crate even stops. as soon as you click spin if you won the weapon it will show up and people see it ingame. it doesnt matter how long you hold the button down tust me i have mostly eery zp crate weapon -
mentioned many times before. the computer itself can not give out a randomly generated number. there are some new technologies where random numbers can be achieved
through light:
a photoresistive element would take pictures of the light intensity and use the data of that picture as output.
through background noise:
noise coming from a microphone pickup or the noise of a coolingfan can be used for a seed.
electrical noise:
electrical background which is detected using a Readadc. and forwarded to a pulsing count and used for a seed.
chances are that smilegate uses a rather simple technique for its blackmarket crates. like with online casinos. they set their monthly winnings from 5 to 10 percent. so if they want to give out 50 awm xmasguns then so it will happen. -
Hypernamer2 wrote: »Nah it's not luck that's sure
Computers can't make something random
There is probably an algorithm that makes it as close as possible to luck
Its like the lottery.... I think you can win, but you never do
When I first started playing getting zp crate guns was easy, now it seems the odds have changed or something. -
if you argue that way, then there isnt luck at all in the world. You can calculate all, even the outcome of rolling dice. if you take the milliseconds of the computer internals clock, you have a range of 0.1%, plus taking other values like seconds, date, and a weird counter to modify the result and making the range of "random" numbers even bigger. if you know all this modifiers and the function which modifies the result, then you ONLY need to hit the button at the exact millisecond...Hypernamer2 wrote: »Nah it's not luck that's sure
Computers can't make something random
There is probably an algorithm that makes it as close as possible to luck
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