Black Market Crate Probability Experiment

Rolleym wrote: »

i really like your idea and the way that you are carrying out this so, firstly you deserve a big thanks and a pat on the back for doing this. i am sure the whole community will thank you if this turns out to be a fruitful investigation.

i don't know much about programming, but i am learning and use a bit of Visual basic, and when i am using random statements, even if i have a counter to weight the results, i use the "randomize" statement that uses the system clock as a benchmark to make theresult truly random.
this may or may not be the starting point you're looking for.
any corrections are welcome :P

mat

KingstarKB wrote: »

AWM-R. Dragon : 1 (1 very sexy Crate) and I won it xD

GaMoRZz wrote: »

Hello all.

There are a lot of people on these forums who want to know the probability of getting a top prize in a crate. So I decided, it can't be too hard to find an estimate of the probability. Which brings me to this thread.

Aim.

To find out the probability of getting a top prize in a Black Market Crate.

Prediction.

My prediction of the probability would be around 0.3%. This takes into consideration the lucky ones (people who get it in <10 crates) and the unlucky ones (people who have bought over 150 crates and still have not got a top prize). It also takes into consideration that you get 3 prizes from each crate.

Method.

I will gather information from a range of Crossfire gamblers and use that to calculate an estimated probability using the following formula:
P=N/300 where P is the probability and N is the sum of crates each person bought to receive a top prize (all added together).

What I need from you.

I need anyone who has won a top prize to supply me with the information needed to calculate this elusive probability. I will take 100 samples into consideration for the conclusion (hence the N/300 bit, 100 samples x 3 prizes from each crate).
You are eligible to take place and send me information if:

• You have won a top prize from the Black Market. (M4-C, AK47-S, KRISS SUPER V, AWM-XMAS-ADV, DE-C, ANCND-ADV, AUG-CAMO, WINCHESTER/THOMPSON, M16-S)

• You can recall how many crates it took you to win this top prize. (To the nearest 10 crates if you cannot remember exactly)

If you fit the above criteria, please send me information in the following format:

Prize Won:
Number Of Crates Taken:

If you have more than one entry, please post them in the same post.

Data So Far.

Here is a list of the data collected so far. (For my own personal tracking use)

1. 80
2. 380
3. 2
4. 29
5. 48
6. 18
7. 3
8. 120
9. 890
10. 120
11. 200
12. 29
13. 26
14. 30
15. 4
16. 10
17. 50
18. 118
19. 30
20. 2

Conclusion.

This will be written once 100 people have supplied information.

Thank-you in advance for your time and information.