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Originally posted by cratesrgay View PostHow many crates on average does it take to win all 3 weapons from a 3 weapons crate?
Since it is my day off and drooling over the wide grenade, I did a little stats calculation.
**Tl;dr: on average, you will win 5.5 weapons from the crate in order to win all 3 weapons and get the wide grenade and ribbon.**
Let λ be the average number of crates it takes for you to win any 1 weapon from a crate.
1. You buy λ crates and win the first weapon.
Total crates now = λ
2. To ensure you don’t win a repeat of your first weapon, I used Geometric distribution with p=0.667 (winning new weapon chance)
X ∼ Geometric(0.667)
E(X) = (10.667)/0.333
= 0.5 λ
So on average, you will win 0.5 repeat weapon before you open another λ crates to win a new one.
Total crate now = 1 + 0.5 + 1= 1.5 λ
3. Now you have 2 of the 3 weapons in the 3 weapons set, the chance of winning now weapon is 0.333. Repeating geometric distribution.
Y ∼ Geometric(0.333)
E(Y) = (1.333)/0.333 = 2 λ
So on average, you will win 2 repeat weapons before you win your final new weapon.
Total crates now = 1 + 0.5 + 1 +2 + 1= 5.5 λ
So if it takes 200 crates for you to win 1 weapon, you will need 1100 crates to get the wide grenade and ribbon. If it takes you 100 crates to win 1 weapon, you need 550 crates.
Since the variance is quite big for λ, I am not going to carry that through the calculation :/
And yes, I am bored.
You made me hate them already ..
And it's a name card not a ribbon !
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Originally posted by cratesrgay View PostHow many crates on average does it take to win all 3 weapons from a 3 weapons crate?
Since it is my day off and drooling over the wide grenade, I did a little stats calculation.
**Tl;dr: on average, you will win 5.5 weapons from the crate in order to win all 3 weapons and get the wide grenade and ribbon.**
Let λ be the average number of crates it takes for you to win any 1 weapon from a crate.
1. You buy λ crates and win the first weapon.
Total crates now = λ
2. To ensure you don’t win a repeat of your first weapon, I used Geometric distribution with p=0.667 (winning new weapon chance)
X ∼ Geometric(0.667)
E(X) = (10.667)/0.333
= 0.5 λ
So on average, you will win 0.5 repeat weapon before you open another λ crates to win a new one.
Total crate now = 1 + 0.5 + 1= 1.5 λ
3. Now you have 2 of the 3 weapons in the 3 weapons set, the chance of winning now weapon is 0.333. Repeating geometric distribution.
Y ∼ Geometric(0.333)
E(Y) = (1.333)/0.333 = 2 λ
So on average, you will win 2 repeat weapons before you win your final new weapon.
Total crates now = 1 + 0.5 + 1 +2 + 1= 5.5 λ
So if it takes 200 crates for you to win 1 weapon, you will need 1100 crates to get the wide grenade and ribbon. If it takes you 100 crates to win 1 weapon, you need 550 crates.
Since the variance is quite big for λ, I am not going to carry that through the calculation :/
And yes, I am bored.
Comment

Originally posted by cratesrgay View PostHow many crates on average does it take to win all 3 weapons from a 3 weapons crate?
Since it is my day off and drooling over the wide grenade, I did a little stats calculation.
**Tl;dr: on average, you will win 5.5 weapons from the crate in order to win all 3 weapons and get the wide grenade and ribbon.**
Let λ be the average number of crates it takes for you to win any 1 weapon from a crate.
1. You buy λ crates and win the first weapon.
Total crates now = λ
2. To ensure you don’t win a repeat of your first weapon, I used Geometric distribution with p=0.667 (winning new weapon chance)
X ∼ Geometric(0.667)
E(X) = (10.667)/0.333
= 0.5 λ
So on average, you will win 0.5 repeat weapon before you open another λ crates to win a new one.
Total crate now = 1 + 0.5 + 1= 1.5 λ
3. Now you have 2 of the 3 weapons in the 3 weapons set, the chance of winning now weapon is 0.333. Repeating geometric distribution.
Y ∼ Geometric(0.333)
E(Y) = (1.333)/0.333 = 2 λ
So on average, you will win 2 repeat weapons before you win your final new weapon.
Total crates now = 1 + 0.5 + 1 +2 + 1= 5.5 λ
So if it takes 200 crates for you to win 1 weapon, you will need 1100 crates to get the wide grenade and ribbon. If it takes you 100 crates to win 1 weapon, you need 550 crates.
Since the variance is quite big for λ, I am not going to carry that through the calculation :/
And yes, I am bored.
OT: Honestly speaking, this Chroma set looks tasty af.
Comment

Boss: "hey, i've decided that we're going to start putting knife attachments on every single ak47 from here on out"
Trainee: "but aren't' we planning on releasing that new crate package that has a regular ak47? I mean our designers spent like an entire week twidling their thumbs and not making maps or anything meaningful to the game but at least the players are gonna want the ak it looks pretty good, and in my opinion I like it better without the kni"
Boss: "You know what that's a great point, put a silencer on it. We'll put a silencer on all the skins we forget about. It's pretty hard remembering this stuff when it only takes a couple hours to make and we stretch that out for weeks at a time, but thanks for the great suggestion!"
Trainee: "bbboss you really wanna put knives and silencers on every ak47 from now on? Come on that seems a bit drastic...like...even on the VIP's?
Boss: "Especially the VIP's."
Ok I was way too bored but this is what I imagine a conversation going like around 612 months back because now every ak has a knife or silencer and looks dumb as hell. I'm just glad that I can finally waste my money on not winning this new sick ass regular ak that doesn't have all this dumb bs added on to it.
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Originally posted by Heatio View PostBoss: "hey, i've decided that we're going to start putting knife attachments on every single ak47 from here on out"
Trainee: "but aren't' we planning on releasing that new crate package that has a regular ak47? I mean our designers spent like an entire week twidling their thumbs and not making maps or anything meaningful to the game but at least the players are gonna want the ak it looks pretty good, and in my opinion I like it better without the kni"
Boss: "You know what that's a great point, put a silencer on it. We'll put a silencer on all the skins we forget about. It's pretty hard remembering this stuff when it only takes a couple hours to make and we stretch that out for weeks at a time, but thanks for the great suggestion!"
Trainee: "bbboss you really wanna put knives and silencers on every ak47 from now on? Come on that seems a bit drastic...like...even on the VIP's?
Boss: "Especially the VIP's."
Ok I was way too bored but this is what I imagine a conversation going like around 612 months back because now every ak has a knife or silencer and looks dumb as hell. I'm just glad that I can finally waste my money on not winning this new sick ass regular ak that doesn't have all this dumb bs added on to it.
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